New York Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has pushed a ton of the right buttons this offseason, remodeling the team’s roster, as well as upper-minors depth, in a number of solid moves. But one area that he hasn’t put much time, effort, or financial investment into has been the Mets’ solid starting rotation.
Aside from minor additions in Hector Santiago, who could be used as a starter or a reliever, and Walker Lockett, likely destined for a summer in sunny Syracuse, the Mets’ top-five of reigning National League Cy Young Award-winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, and Jason Vargas — with just under three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie — appear to be penciled into the team’s rotation.
DeGrom and Syndergaard atop the Mets’ dance card is arguably the strongest one-two combination in the majors. With a resurgent Wheeler (3.31 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.124 WHIP, 3.25 strikeouts-to-walks over 29 starts in 2018) residing in the three-hole and the talented yet enigmatic Matz — ready or not, it’s his time to sink or swim — likely right behind him, the only true area of concern lies with the Mets’ 35-year-old southpaw, Jason Vargas.
After experiencing the epitome of an up-and-down season in 2018, Vargas returns to the Mets to fulfill the final year of the two-year contract he signed last February ($16 million). Whether he remains a cog in the team’s starting five remains to be seen.
Vargas began his first season back with the organization (he made two starts for the Mets in 2007) on the wrong foot, er, hand, breaking the hamate bone in his non-throwing hand after being on the receiving end of a comebacker during the last week of Spring Training.
Clearly, the long wait to sign on with a ball club and the painful speed bump along the way to being game-ready resulted in an unprepared Vargas taking the mound for the first time on April 28 (3.2 innings, nine hits, nine earned runs in a 12-2 loss to San Diego). Aside from a couple of fine outings, things went as poorly as possible for the veteran lefty over the first three months of the season.
Over the first half (nine starts; 37.2 innings), Vargas pitched to an 8.60 earned-run average with 1.832 WHIP, a 2.29 strikeouts-to-walks ratio, 6.61 fielding independent pitching rating, .367 BABIP against, and allowed 2.63 home runs per nine innings. At the risk of sounding overdramatic, Vargas’ signing was shaping up to be one of the worst made by the Mets in recent memory.
Faced with the task of not only keeping his job in Flushing but with keeping himself afloat in the sea of other, likely much cheaper and effective options out there for the other 29 teams if/when he was indeed released, Vargas turned things around over the second half of the year in a very big way.
Over 11 starts (54.1 innings), the left-hander pitched to a 3.81 ERA, allowing 1.123 WHIP, 3.25 strikeouts-to-walks, with a 3.92 FIP, .259 BABIP against, and allowed 1.16 home runs per nine — nearly a dinger-and-a-half less that his atrocious first half.
While Jason Vargas is nowhere close to being labeled as a sure thing heading into Port St. Lucie this coming February, the Mets must be feeling somewhat more comfortable about the situation compared to what they were likely experiencing around the All-Star break last season (buyer’s remorse to the thousandth power).
Will Vargas put up the same numbers this season as he did over the last three months of 2018? Hopefully, but that might be setting the bar a bit high. The last regime brought Vargas into the fold to be the team’s fifth starter. If he can perform that task adequately, fantastic. The Mets can allow Santiago and Lockett to prepare themselves without any added pressure.
Whether Brodie Van Wagenen heads into Spring Training with Vargas slotted into that fifth starter’s spot is another conversation altogether. With hurlers such as Wade Miley, Gio Gonzalez and Clay Buchholz still lingering on the open market — while also considering that healthy roster competition appears to be the name of the game regarding this new Mets regime — Brodie might not be done just yet.
Cutting Jason Vargas loose sooner rather than later or simply banishing him to the bullpen might appease a small fraction of fans who just want to see him out of the rotation, but it would be a hasty, potentially unwise decision. As long as he performs at-or-near the level he was last season — right up until he doesn’t, to be frank — he provides a potential value to this roster. It’s up to him to turn that potential into reality once again.
