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While pitchers and catchers should be preparing to report shortly, MLB’s lockout of the players has successfully sucked all the air out of the excitement typically associated with that. Another byproduct of the lockout has been the general lack of (good and/or fun) news that involves baseball.
The Hot Stove is supposed to keep us warm during the winter months. I don’t know about you, but I’ve been freezing since the incredible league-wide free-agency spending spree right before the lockout went into effect. Thankfully, Dan Szymborski and FanGraphs have given us something to talk about that isn’t an incredibly frustrating CBA update: some standings projections!
National League projections were released before American League projections last week. Even though it looks like we’re nowhere close to getting MLB players on fields again, this was just the shot of offseason normalcy I was looking for. Here are some Mets-related thoughts and observations based on what I saw.
This Looks More Like It
Around this time last year, we kept seeing different projection systems that were likely getting us unreasonably excited for the season to start. PECOTA tabbed the Mets for a 95-67 record, while FanGraphs had them at 91-71. The ZiPS projection from right before Opening Day also had New York with a 91-71 record. All three projections had the Mets winning the division, with the pre-Opening Day ZiPS projections predicting a tie with the Atlanta Braves.
We obviously know none of this came true, and all projections should be taken with a grain of salt. But still, when looking at the recently released ZiPS projections, I don’t immediately want to fall off my chair from shock.
The Mets are currently tabbed as an 88-74 club, finishing second in the NL East to the Braves. Looking at how the club is currently constructed, that seems reasonable since there are still holes to plug and depth to fill in before New York takes the field this season. If this projection is accurate, it’d be a substantial turnaround for New York after finishing 77-85 in 2021. It’d be close to mirroring some prior one-year turnarounds in franchise history, most recently between 2014 and 2015.
And if we’re looking at whether those results would be good enough to play October baseball, recent history says they’d have a shot. Since the second Wild Card was installed for the 2012 season, the final NL team to punch a ticket to the postseason landed somewhere between 88 and 91 wins in all but one year. That was in 2015 when the Pittsburgh Pirates won 98 games and the Chicago Cubs won 97.
The NL East Should Be Evenly Matched
Although the division boasted three losing teams — with two of them winning fewer than 70 games — last season, NL East teams seem to always beat up on one another. The Braves are currently projected to win the division with 90 victories, while the Washington Nationals are projected to finish in the basement with 75 wins.
That projected difference of 15 wins between first and last place is among the smallest in baseball. The only division with a smaller differential is the AL Central — the Chicago White Sox are projected for 88 wins and the Kansas City Royals currently have a projection of 74 victories. The big difference between these two divisions, though? The White Sox are the only club expected to finish with a winning record, while the NL East is projected to have four with at least 80 wins and three finishing above .500.
It should be a fun divisional race to follow this season. The Braves have won the NL East each of the last four years, so whatever happens, one of the other members will have to knock them off. The Mets have obviously made some improvements, the Philadelphia Phillies will be competitive, and the Miami Marlins have a fantastic young rotation. Also, the Nationals have Juan Soto, and that should totally count for something.
Could These Projections Spur More Action?
Szymborski did say that while these are the current projections, the offseason is not near being over from a roster acquisition standpoint like it would typically be at the beginning of February. So, these projections are saying the Braves are expected to win the NL East, even if Freddie Freeman isn’t on the roster. If Atlanta were to bring back its longtime first baseman — you know, instead of the New York Yankees or someone else — one would imagine the club’s win-loss projection improves.
The Mets already have an idea of what they’ll want to accomplish after the lockout. While their own analytics department likely has models and projections for how the upcoming season could turn out, maybe these kinds of projections can get the right people riled up enough (*cough* Steven Cohen *cough*) to allow for more significant moves to happen.
The Mets have put together a nice offseason so far, but there’s still a job to finish. Let’s hope complacency doesn’t take over and their foot stays on the proverbial gas pedal to do so.
