Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Well, it’s not ideal, but there’s a chance?
Heading into Sunday, the Mets’ playoff odds sit at just 0.5%, per Fangraphs.
Those odds are split up at 0.4% chance of still winning the NL East over the Braves and Phillies, and less than 0.1% of a chance of winning the second Wild Card spot. The Wild Card odds were drilled into the ground after losing five straight to the Cardinals and Phils, both who were ahead of the Mets in the race.
The Mets’ playoff odds peaked on April 18 with a 91.4% chance to secure a postseason birth, and their odds were as high as 77.9% on July 28. Then Jacob deGrom was ruled out for multiple weeks, and the Mets went 2-11 in 13 games against San Francisco and the Dodgers. Their odds dropped to 1.5% on August 27 after a loss to the Nationals, then crept up to 11.4% after a six-game winning streak. But they’ve been in free fall ever since, going 3-10 since Labor Day.
The Mets are 5.5 games back in the NL East, and with three games against Atlanta (leading) and one more against the Phillies (one game back of the NL lead) on Sunday, the Mets will have to win all four of those games to even sniff a shot at the postseason. Then the Mets will need both Atlanta and Philadelphia to struggle in the final two weeks of the season in games they aren’t playing the Mets.
Mets’ remaining schedule (13 games): vs. PHI, @ BOS (2 games), @MIL (3 games), vs. MIA (4 games), @ATL (3 games)
Atlanta’s remaining schedule (15 games): @SF, @ARI (4 games), @SD (4 games), vs. PHI (3 games), vs. NYM (3 games)
Phillies’ remaining schedule (14 games): @NYM, vs. BAL (3 games), vs. PIT (4 games), @ATL (3 games), @MIA (3 games)
The Mets and Atlanta have the toughest schedules of the three. The Mets have three off days worked into the last two weeks, while the Phillies and Atlanta both have just one rest day.
One could argue with the Phillies easier schedule and lack of games against them, Philadelphia is the team the Mets will be chasing. And in that case, they’d need to go at least 11-2 or 12-1 over the last 13 games and the Phillies to slow down significantly for the Mets to catch them. (They’re currently 4.5 games behind the Phils.)
