I’ll be honest Mets’ fans; if you’re out there… it’s not looking great. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean it’s over. Just when we think the season is complete, when they are on the brink of despair, this team has a way of pulling us back in.

Take Wednesday night’s game, for example. Rick Porcello comes out, gives up five earned runs over four innings, and all of us at home watching release any optimism we might have had left as we watch our team seemingly fall six games under .500. Still, down five runs, the Mets came back, and thanks to Pete Alonso’s go-ahead home run in the eighth inning, our boys in blue and orange are now just four games under .500, three games out of second place in the division, and two and a half games out of the second wild-card spot, with 16 games left to play.

As of Thursday night, Fangraphs places the Mets odds for making the playoffs at 36.8%, with a 25.3% chance to win a wildcard spot, an 10.6% chance to nab the second spot in the division, and a 1.0% chance to overtake the Braves for first place in the NL East.

Let’s start with the wildcard. Currently holding the two spots are the San Francisco Giants and the Miami Marlins. The Giants have a tough remaining schedule, facing the 29-17 Padres six more times and the first place Oakland Athletics thrice. The Marlins will get a break after they finish their series with the Phillies, taking on the last-place Boston Red Sox and the fourth place Washington Nationals before finishing their season with two hard series versus the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees.

The Colorado Rockies and the Milwaukee Brewers both sit two games out from the Giants and the Marlins, followed by the Mets.

A couple things need to happen in order for the Mets to have a shot at a wildcard spot.

First off, the Marlins need to have a terrible road trip to end their season. This could be a strong possibility, as they face the powerhouse Braves, who scored 29 runs on Wednesday evening, and the Yankees, who, while struggling, still house a powerful lineup and a rotation headed by Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka.

The Giants need to continue to lose to the Padres, and their cross-bay rivals in Oakland need to take at least two of three in their three-game set to knock them down a peg. The Cubs need to beat up on the Brewers in their three-game series coming up, and if the Cardinals could continue that into the next series, that would be beneficial as well.

I’m not too worried about the Rockies, as they are 3-7 over their last ten and haven’t been the same since their 11-3 start. Plus, they have to face the Athletics and Dodgers at home, where they have gone 9-12 over the course of the season. The Rockies’ final four-game set versus the Giants will be an interesting one, and if both are still in the race, us Met fans will hope for an even split to keep both teams right where they are.

Now, Let’s talk about the Mets remaining schedule. After an off-day Thursday, New York will start a three-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have gone 6-4 in their last 10 to catapult themselves into second place in the division, as the Yankees fall further down in the standings. Jacob deGrom and Seth Lugo are the probable starters for the first two games of this series, and the team desperately will need to take two of three here.

Next, they will face the Phillies on the road, which will be a crucial series. The Mets are 2-5 against Philadelphia this year and will need a sweep to even think about having a shot at the second division spot. Two of three would most likely keep them in the hunt for a wildcard.

The final week of the Mets’ schedule is most important. Six straight games versus first place teams, starting against Atlanta and then against the Tampa Bay Rays, will be a serious test to see if this team can hold its ground. If they can go .500 across these six games, and then take three of four from the Nationals in the final series of the regular season, that would put them at 31-30, which would most likely just squeeze them into the Wildcard. A sweep here or there would really boost their chances, but at the very least, the Mets need to win four of their five remaining series, which would make for a 10-6 record.

This is doable, but the bullpen will need to come together. Edwin Diaz will need to keep up what he has been doing over the last couple of weeks. DeGrom and Lugo will need to keep on spearheading the rotation, while David Peterson will have to bounce back from his horrendous last start. With those three performing, and one of either Porcello or Michael Wacha improving slightly, I’d say there is a strong chance that the Mets can pull this off, as long as the offense stays hot. A meltdown in the City of Brotherly Love wouldn’t hurt their chances, either.

I guess we’ll see where the wind takes us. First stop, Buffalo.