The New York Mets go into 2016 armed with a potent offense compared to the start of the 2015 season. With the stout starting five the Mets will throw out against opposing teams, it’s no wonder that the Mets offense is a secondary conversation. However, the name of the game is scoring runs, and I surmise that the Mets of 2016 will have a large jump in runs scored from the previous season.
A full year of Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto alone offer a substantial upgrade from Juan Lagares and Michael Cuddyer. Add in healthy (hands clasped in a prayer) years from Travis d’Arnaud and David Wright, and I believe this Mets team can challenge for a top ten spot in total runs scored.
Lets take a closer look at the runs the Mets have scored over the past 3 seasons. In 2015, the Mets were 17th in MLB in runs scored at 683. That’s a considerable upgrade from the 2014 season, where the Mets placed 22nd at 629 runs scored. Then in 2013 the Mets were 23rd at 619. The last time the Mets finished within the top ten was back in 2008, where they placed 8th at 799 runs scored! The Mets had three players with over 100 runs scored that year in Jose Reyes (113), David Wright (115), and Carlos Beltran (116). The Mets almost had a fourth in Carlos Delgado, who fell 4 runs shy at 96 runs. Reyes, Wright, and Beltran accounted for 3 of the top 10 spots for runs scored that season, an astonishing feat for sure.
Back in 2015, the Mets scored 331 runs through the July 24th game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. That accounts for 97 games played. From July 25th on, they tacked on another 352 runs, in only 65 games! That’s an average of 5.4 runs per game. That number is also a full 2 runs higher than what the Mets were averaging through their first 97 games. We know that Cespedes went on an absolute tear in August, saw the returns of Wright and d’Arnaud from injury, had veteran bench bats in Uribe and Johnson, and had contributions from the young Conforto. All this added to the spike in runs per game.
Now I’m not suggesting that the Mets of 2016 are going to be putting up gaudy numbers like what they produced in that 65 games span. But I am betting on the Mets generating higher run totals, and it’s clear to see where they’ll be getting them from.
Start with a full year of Michael Conforto. While the team will be patient with him, and transition him into a full time left fielder including facing left-handers, I suspect that Conforto should see around 130-140 games played in 2016. Conforto scored 30 runs last season in only 56 games. He also scored 46 runs between St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2015. If he plays in 130 games, he should be looking at around 60 runs scored. That’s an additional 30 runs scored.
General manager Sandy Alderson recently told reporters that he hopes to have David Wright play in about 130 games. If that’s the case, we should expect to see a significant uptick in runs scored for Wright. Last season in 38 games played, Wright scored 24 runs. If Wright plays in 130 games, we can take a look at 2014 when he played in 134 games and scored 54 times. I’d anticipate about 54-60 runs scored for Wright barring injury, which adds an additional 30 runs to the pot.
Travis d’Arnaud looked to have a breakout year last season, as he was putting together a solid offensive campaign. He would end up missing all of May and almost all of July due to injury. In total, d’Arnaud played in 67 games and scored 31 runs. In 2014, d’Arnaud played in 108 games and scored 48 runs. If the Mets can get him to 125 games this season, he should be on pace for around 50-55 runs scored.
And then there’s “La Potencia”, Yoenis Cespedes. Having Cespedes for a full season will unequivocally add a ton of offense to the Mets lineup. His mere presence in the lineup creates depth and better pitches to hitters in front and behind him in the order. Cespedes scored 39 runs in 57 games with the Mets. Cespedes has never scored less than 70 runs in a season, which was his rookie campaign in which he scored 70 runs in 129 games. His run total has gone up since then, to 74 in 2013, 89 in 2014, and a career high 101 in 2015. Cespedes played in 159 games between the Tigers and Mets last season, playing in all but two games for the Mets. With the matchups manager Terry Collins now has on the bench, I’d say Cespedes should be in line to play in 145 games this season. We already know big ballparks don’t scare him, as he good offensive seasons in Oakland to start his career. I’d look for Cespedes to score around 80 runs this season, which would be an increase of 41 runs.
The loss of Kelly Johnson (18 runs), Juan Uribe (17 runs), Michael Cuddyer (44 runs) will be made up by Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, Alejandro De Aza, Juan Lagares, and Kevin Plawecki on the bench. The Mets bench might even score more runs with less players this year. Consider that the Mets scored 106 runs from this group of players:Eric Young Jr., Daniel Muno, Johnny Monell, Darrell Ceciliani, Anthony Recker, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, John Mayberry Jr., Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, and Kevin Plawecki. Ten players to generate 106 runs. Now with the Mets bench this season, I believe that with the ability for Collins to insert these guys at opportune times, the five I listed above can score 120 runs collectively.
In 2014, Flores played in 78 games and scored 28 runs. Look for him to have around 35-40 runs scored this year, where he’ll see regular playing time as the super utility player. In 2011, De Aza played in 54 games with the Chicago White Sox and scored 29 runs. I see about the same for him this season, especially now with the more limited role he might play. Plawecki should improve from his rookie year and be the regular backup to d’Arnaud. Add in Lagares and Tejada and the Mets should be in for an increase with their bench runs in half the amount of players used from last season.
Of course we could see regression from a few players, or injuries which could affect the total number I had in mind. With all that said, I still believe the Mets can generate an additional 75-90 runs this season, possibly more if health plays to the Mets favor. If you add 75 runs to last years total of 683, that gives you 758, which would’ve placed the Mets 3rd behind the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees. I truly believe the Mets have the capabilities to be able to manufacture at least 75, if not more in 2016.
There’s a lot to look forward to in 2016. This offense should be mentioned as one of their strengths now, something Mets fans haven’t been able to say since the days of Beltran and Delgado. Heading into Spring Training, it’s been said that the Mets have a different mindset than in years past. They’re hungry, they know that their time is now and must grab the proverbial bull by the horns. Look for the Mets to not only showcase their stellar starting rotation, but to also impress with the bat as well this season.
