Currently sitting at 34-37, the Mets have 21 more games until the All-Star break and 38 games until the trade deadline.
During that span, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen and company will be keeping a very close eye on the team, as they have to figure out whether they want to be buyers or sellers.
Unless the Mets start winning games at a clip that puts them far above .500, it may be wise for them to sell off some of their best pieces. Namely, Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler, 29, will be a free agent at the end of the season, but the Mets have yet to make any indication that they intend to lock him up to a long-term deal. If they don’t sign him to an extension, then New York will run a real risk of losing Wheeler for nothing in free agency over the winter.
Which is why if I am Brodie Van Wagenen, I would set up a meeting with Wheeler and representatives over the All-Star break to talk about signing long-term. If the Mets can sign Wheeler to a contract similar to the one that Nathan Eovoldi signed this offseason, four-years $67.5 million, they should strongly consider keeping him in Queens.
But if Wheeler is dead-set on testing the open market as a free agent, the Mets need to capitalize on his value and trade him now, regardless of their record.
Now if they do decide to trade Wheeler, the Mets should strongly consider the trade package that their crosstown rival can offer. In trading with the Yankees, the Mets could find the starting center fielder that they have been searching forever for since they traded Carlos Beltran for Wheeler back in 2011.
Estevan Florial, 21, is a center fielder with five-tool potential, that is currently the Yankees top prospect. Florial’s 2019 season is just getting started, as he broke his wrist in Spring Training. In his first seven games back, Florial is hitting .333/.448/.552, with two doubles, a home run, three RBI, five runs scored and three stolen bases.
Unfortunately, the Yankees may balk at the idea of trading Florial, as they are really high on him and have been hesitant to include him in other trades in past. Instead, it is likely that they would prefer to trade Clint Frazier, as he is nearly three years older and may not have as high of a ceiling.
Still, Frazier is a good player that has already graduated to being a productive major league player. This year, Frazier is hitting .276/.328/.523 with 11 home runs and 33 RBI. He has struggled mightily in the field, after failing to adjust well to playing right field, but a return to his natural position of center field may help ease some of those problems.
Trading Wheeler to the Yankees would be a tough pill for the fan base (and ownership) to swallow, but the Mets have to focus on getting the best trade package if they are going to move him.
Short of leading the Mets to a World Series victory this year, there is not much that Wheeler can do over the last two months of his contract that would outweigh the value of a player that could start in center field for the next five years.
Frazier would not be a free agent until 2024 and Florial has not even made his debut yet, so both players would represent long-term solutions for the Mets.
Take a look back at what the Yankees did in 2016, when they traded Aroldis Chapman on July 25, signaling that they would be sellers despite being three games over .500.
Brian Cashman realized that while the Yankees had a lot of talent, they had little chance to make noise in the American League East, with three other good teams in the division. The Yankees would go on to trade Andrew Miller, Carlos Beltran and Ivan Nova, before finishing out the season strong with their young players.
By making those trades, the Yankees came away with plenty of top prospects that rejuvenated their farm system, including All-Star Gleyber Torres and Frazier. They also were proved right in not being able to compete that year, as the Red Sox, the Blue Jays and the Orioles all made the playoffs.
Now, this is not an apples to apples comparison, as the Mets do not have nearly as many pieces to sell off, but they should follow that same philosophy for making the decision on Wheeler.
The Mets face long odds to make a World Series run this year. They are in a tough division and the Wild Card won’t be any easier to clinch with the other great teams across the NL. Even if they made the playoffs, the Mets would have to go through the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers, who look unbeatable so far this season.
Trading Wheeler to the Yankees, or whatever team gives them the best offer, could be the move that helps take the Mets over the top for 2020 and beyond.
