In conjunction with input from anonymous talent evaluators, Buster Olney in his ESPN Insider piece ranked the top three rotations in all of baseball. The New York Mets rotation ranked third.
The overriding reason why the Mets finished behind the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox was the questionable health history for a majority of the Mets rotation. As noted by Olney, “Pitcher for pitcher, they probably have more pure talent in their rotation than any other team, with Noah Syndergaard‘s overpowering stuff, Matt Harvey‘s fastball, etc. “But they need to actually get out there and do it,” one executive said. ‘It’s one thing to have a great arm, but you have to show that you can give 180-200 innings.'”
That’s been the rub with the Mets. Last year, Harvey had season ending surgery to alleviate the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS). Jacob deGrom started the 2016 season with an oblique injury, and he ended it needing season ending surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his right elbow. Steven Matz had to have season ending surgery to remove what was described as a massive bone spur in this elbow. Zack Wheeler has now missed two seasons due to setbacks he has had during his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery.
The Mets did see Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo emerge last season to show themselves to be reliable starting pitching options. However, neither Gsellman nor Lugo have the pure talent that any of the aforementioned pitchers have. While last season proved the Mets can still have a good rotation with Gsellman and Lugo in place of Harvey and deGrom, it also proved that the Mets are not the same team without two or three of the best pitchers in their rotation.
Putting all the negatives aside, the medical reports on the aforementioned pitchers have been positive, and the Mets do have a lot of quality starting options. If healthy, this is the same rotation that out-pitched Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in the NLDS and outpitched Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in the NLCS.
While the Cubs ranking is better than the Mets, it’s mostly based on the belief that the Cubs pitchers are more durable than the Mets pitchers. Still, when healthy, the Mets have the most talented pitching in all of baseball, and the Mets have established they can beat any rotation at any time. Despite the injuries, Mets starting pitchers had a Major League best 18.3 fWAR in 2016.
Overall, Olney put it best when he said the quality of the Mets rotation is going to hinge on Harvey. When Harvey is pitching to his 2013 or even his 2015 form, he could quite possible be the best pitcher on this Mets staff – even better than Syndergaard. The quality of this rotation and quite possibly the outcome of the 2017 season may very well rest on his arm.
