Mets Must Aim High With Next Pitching Target

After failing to make the playoffs for a fifth straight season, the New York Mets find themselves in a very similar position once again this offseason and if they’re to end this current postseason drought, several roster improvements will be required, including the starting rotation.

As currently constructed, the Mets rotation is slated to feature Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson and Tylor Megill when the 2022 campaign begins. But given the recent health concerns involving deGrom, Carrasco and Peterson, paired with the poor second-half performance from Walker, this group could definitely benefit from adding another arm.

Hoping to acquire at least one starter this winter, at first, the front office was hopeful Noah Syndergaard could emerge into a much larger piece next season after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, shortly after declining his $18.4 million qualifying offer, the 29-year-old signed a one-year, $21 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.

Forced to move on without “Thor,” it’d still be wise for this team to set its sights fairly high in free agency as they search for another front-line starter. Luckily, as of now, there are a couple of available hurlers who meet that description in the open market, beginning with a future Hall-of-Famer.

Starting at the top of New York’s ideal wish list, Max Scherzer is someone who should immediately stand out to this organization as a top priority, especially considering his current reputation as one of the top pitchers in the sport.

Coming off his 14th season in the majors, Scherzer, who finished third in the 2021 National League Cy Young Award race, remains at the top of his game and could provide plenty of upside for any playoff contender in 2022. Based on his eight years of postseason experience, including two separate World Series appearances, he certainly knows what it takes to win at the highest level.

Most recently, Scherzer displayed his dominance across two different franchises, the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers, this past season and nearly won the fourth Cy Young Award of his career. Despite falling short of this accolade, the eight-time All-Star still enjoyed another remarkable showing – one that helped him lead the Dodgers to the NLCS.

Dodging the effects of father time during his age-36 season, the 6’3″ hurler continued to defy logic as he posted an impressive 2.46 ERA, 2.90 xERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, .184 OPP AVG and a 5.4 fWAR rating over 179 1/3 innings between Washington and Los Angeles.

Expanding on his stellar showing, opposing batters struggled mightily throughout most of the season to generate contact against Scherzer, resulting in a 33.8% strikeout rate, 29.7% chase rate and a career-best 34.1% whiff rate – ranking it in the 92nd percentile in the majors. Additionally, the right-hander also registered a 5.2% walk rate, his lowest percentage since 2019.

In comparison to the rest of the competition, the former first-round selection finished with the second-best ERA, the second-highest strikeout rate, the fourth-most strikeouts (236), the fifth-highest fWAR rating and the sixth-best FIP among all starters who compiled at least 150.0 innings, according to FanGraphs.com.

For anyone concerned about Scherzer’s age, at this moment, the 2019 World Series champion hasn’t shown any worrisome signs that’d suggest he’s starting to decline. Even in his mid-30s, the talented righty’s fastball hasn’t endured any major drop-offs regarding its velocity, which is usually the first warning signal for aging pitchers.

Putting this situation into perspective, the former National averaged 94.6 mph with his four-seamer from 2018-2020. As for this past season, it only experienced a minor decrease in velocity — if you can even describe it like that — as it averaged 94.3 mph.

But with Scherzer, velocity is only one key aspect of his primary fastball, which also features a remarkable amount of spin. In 2021, it produced an average spin rate of 2,436 RPMs, placing it in the 90th percentile across the majors.

Knowing the three-time Cy Young Award winner likely still has a few dominating seasons left in him, the possibilities he could accomplish if paired next to deGrom and Carrasco in Queens would be endless. Having said that, as fantastic as that would be, it could become challenging to pry him away from the west coast this offseason.

Financially, Scherzer will probably be searching for a lucrative short-term deal that pays him north of $30 million per season, projecting him to command a similar contract to the three-year, $102 million deal Trevor Bauer received last winter. Given the Mets’ other needs that must be addressed, paying that kind of price could be problematic no matter how beneficial it might be.

If Scherzer does prove to be unattainable for whatever reason, the next logical target management could shift to would likely be Robbie Ray, who recently won the 2021 American League Cy Young Award and is coming off a career year.

Following a disappointing stretch from 2018-2020, Ray returned to the Toronto Blue Jays on a one-year deal last offseason hoping to revitalize his playing career, and that’s exactly what happened. Thanks to some mechanical adjustments, spearheaded by pitching coach Pete Walker, the 30-year-old dramatically improved his command and didn’t fall victim to high amounts of walks like in previous seasons.

Paired with his stellar strikeout ability, the explosive left-hander dominated opposing hitters on the mound, allowing him to record career bests in ERA (2.84), xERA (3.60), walk rate (6.7%) and fWAR (3.9) over his 193 1/3 innings pitched.

Adding to his phenomenal showing, the 6’2″ hurler also led the majors in strikeouts (248) and created the fourth-highest strikeout rate (32.1%) among all qualified starters.

What’s even more intriguing about Ray, whose mid-90s fastball and a high-80s slider are both considered elite pitches, is that there’s still room to improve for the 2017 NL All-Star. If he can further develop his curveball, which was only utilized 6.0 percent in 2021, his arsenal could grow into three reliable offerings, potentially making him even more deceiving.

Though the former 12th-round pick is reportedly expected to command a deal that exceeds $100 million, given that Peterson is the lone left-hander in the Mets’ rotation, adding a front-line starter to the mix who throws from the left side could bode very well against left-handed heavy teams like the Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and the Dodgers.

If all else fails, this club could circle back around to someone like Marcus Stroman, who earned a 3.4 fWAR rating through 179.0 innings this past season. At the very least, the 30-year-old, ground-ball specialist could continue serving as a model of consistency within the middle of the rotation.

With New York looking to spend considerably in free agency, as new general manager Billy Eppler mentioned in his opening press conference, it’s conceivable to believe they’ll be hunting the top names available over these next few months.