So far this offseason, the New York Mets have made one free agent signing by bringing in reliever Anthony Swarzak on a two-year deal, this after a dozen arms who they targeted ahead of him signed elsewhere.
Other than that, they have mostly sat on their hands and have yet to jump into the hypothetical “inferno” general manager Sandy Alderson referred to.
This makes sense, however, as Marc Carig of Newsday released a scathing column criticizing Mets brass Saturday, he noted that “the front office has only a fuzzy idea of what they actually have to spend in any given offseason.”
While the team may have limited resources, the job should then be to invest what you do have into your largest need. I believe this to be starting pitching.
“The Mets have shown signs that payroll again is an issue,” Carig said in his column. “They should be looking hard at adding a starting pitcher, adding another reliever, adding a first baseman who can hit and adding a second baseman who can hit.
“Earlier in the offseason, Alderson himself agreed on all those counts. But by the winter meetings, he had changed his tone. He downplayed the need for a starting pitcher. Then he expressed confidence in first baseman Dominic Smith, all after questioning his conditioning.”
Mets starting pitchers had a disappointing 5.14 ERA in 2017 breaking the previous franchise record of 4.77 that was set in 1962 for worst ever and matched again in 2009. They also threw only 865.2 innings, the fourth fewest in the majors. Walk rates skyrocketed while strikeout rates shrunk.
Let’s take a look at what the Mets have right now and see what kind of depth they have…
I do have faith that Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard gives the Mets a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. The former has already reached the 200+ innings plateau and knows the rigors that comes with it, and I think he can do it again.
Syndergaard on the other hand, had a big reality check and missed nearly the entire season after foregoing an MRI and subsequently suffering a partially torn lat muscle. He is taking steps to change his offseason training to focus more on flexibility instead of building mass and muscle to make sure he can stay healthy next season.
Beyond those two, I have confidence that one of Matt Harvey or Steven Matz could reverse their fortunes and man the middle of the rotation.
Harvey is going into his contract year and will reportedly be working close with Scott Boras this offseason on an intensive throwing program. Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland will also be working to get Harvey back to a high level of performance.
Can he return to his former glory? I don’t think that’s the expectation. However, if he can just be a serviceable starter and maybe even a little more than that, I think the Mets would take it. The velocity is there, he just has to work to make sure his pitches aren’t flat and his control is on point.
As for Matz, the southpaw underwent surgery to re-position the ulnar nerve, similar to what deGrom underwent in 2016. If that was the main issue with Matz, there’s no reason he can’t come back just as strong as deGrom did in 2017.
That said, it’s time for Matz to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season. It’s time for him to put all the questions about his durability behind him.
The rest of the rotation will come down to a competition between Zack Wheeler, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo in regards to in-house options. Wheeler hasn’t done much to prove he is the prospect the Mets once thought they had and could very well transition to a bullpen role instead.
The same could be said for Lugo. Gsellman, however, still has the skill set and upside to become a very serviceable starter at the very least.
Looking deeper, Chris Flexen has shown he isn’t quite ready yet for the major leagues, while Rafael Montero continues to be an enigma, giving the team 18 hit or miss starts.
On the bright side, top prospect Corey Oswalt could make the jump to Queens at some point this season if everything breaks right for him.
However, if I’m the Mets, I bring in an external pitcher to help soften the blow if a pitcher or several get injured again. Flying blind and doing exactly what was done last season would not be the smartest move.
There are a couple starters out there that could fit the bill on a short-term pact. A couple that stick out to me are R.A. Dickey and Jhoulys Chacin.
Dickey, 43, tossed 190.0 innings for the Atlanta Braves in 2017, registering a 10-10 record with a 4.26 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 1.368 WHIP and 100 ERA+ in 31 starts.
One a one-year deal, Dickey could help round out the Mets staff by slotting into the back of the rotation and giving them someone who will go out there every fifth day, which they lacked with all the injuries this past year.
Chacin, 30 in January, was good for 2.8 WAR in 2017, logging a 13-10 record with a 3.89 ERA and 4.26 FIP across 180.1 innings (32 starts) for the San Diego Padres.
There are certainly concerns with Chacin given his high walk rate, led the league with 14 HBP and his numbers were far better at home (1.79 ERA) than on the road (6.53).
However, when you’re talking about getting a starting pitcher for only two-years, $14 million like MLB Trade Rumors predicted there are going to be concerns.
Reasons why I would sign Chacin to be a back-end starter is his groundball rate of 49.1% (4th among available starters), soft contact rate of 20.2% (same as Michael Wacha) and his limiting hard contact to 28.5% of the time (tied for 27th among starters with Luis Severino).
Chacin used his sinker a career-high 39% of the time in 2017 and opponents had a measly .361 slugging percentage against the pitch according to BrooksBaseball.net. He also threw his slider a career-high 32% with hitters managing only a .297 slugging percentage off it.
At only $7 million per year, Chacin gives the Mets much needed back-end rotation depth and also has experience in the bullpen if somehow all of the other starting options stay healthy. As a bonus he’s a terrific fielding pitcher with 7 DRS in 2017, tied for second in the majors
In conclusion, despite all the other areas of concern this team has, it would behoove them to acquire that quality innings eater for the rotation this offseason. Beyond deGrom and hopefully Syndergaard, there are still too many questions and a high level of risk that needs to be mitigated.
