With just over a week until spring training begins, the New York Mets are still attempting to round out their roster before players officially report to camp, although there isn’t much time left to add the finishing touches to this team.
Though the front office made a strong push for pitcher Trevor Bauer, who was considered the best arm available in free agency this winter, they ultimately fell short and lost out on him to the Los Angeles Dodgers. While missing out on the 2020 NL Cy Young award winner is certainly disappointing, this club could still benefit from acquiring another starting pitcher this offseason, meaning management must regroup and focus their attention on the hurlers who remain unsigned.
As of right now, players like James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Jake Odorizzi are still unsure as to where they’ll be suiting up next season, but there’s a very good chance each of them will be aiming to locate their next home very shortly as they probably won’t want to miss the start of spring training.
Considering pitcher Joey Lucchesi is currently slotted to serve as the fifth starter in the Mets’ rotation, signing anyone of these three pitchers would undoubtedly provide some stiff competition at the backend of their pitching staff.
Without question, adding Paxton, Walker or Odorizzi would be a significant upgrade over Lucchesi, however, inserting one of those arms into this rotation could create a major logjam once pitcher Noah Syndergaard returns from his Tommy John surgery, which is expected to occur sometime in June or July. Even though it’s never a bad thing to have too much pitching, especially since injuries are destined to pop up over a full season, it might make more sense to acquire someone who isn’t going to push teammate David Peterson into the bullpen once “Thor” comes back.
So which player could fit that profile and eat innings in the short term at the backend of the rotation?
Well, there are several different hurlers the Mets could target for that role, but it seems they already have their eyes on a former Cy Young award winner who could make an impact for them in 2021. After attending his showcase in Texas last month, the front office has remained interested in veteran Jake Arrieta and could attempt to bring him to Queens, according to Andy Martino of SNY.
With that being said, let’s take a look at what Arrieta brings to the table if he becomes a Met.
Considering Arrieta underwent elbow surgery to remove bone spurs in 2019 and missed the final month of last season due to a hamstring strain, there are plenty of question marks regarding his health and it’s entirely possible he’ll require a trip to the injured list once again this season.
While his results have likely been affected by his inability to stay on the mound, the 34-year-old, who’s set to turn 35 next month, has gradually faltered since his award-winning 2015 campaign and has hit a massive wall over the last two seasons.
Over his last 180.0 innings of work, the 2015 NL Cy Young award winner has posted a 4.75 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 4.44 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, .342 wOBA, .320 BABIP, 18.1% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, 23.3% LD rate, 51.4% GB rate, 36.7% hard-hit rate and a combined 1.6 fWAR rating.
In comparison, the former Chicago Cub compiled 229.0 innings in 2015, producing a career-best 1.77 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, .225 wOBA, .246 BABIP, 27.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, 21.0% LD rate, 56.2% GB rate, 22.1% hard-hit rate and a 7.0 fWAR rating.
But despite his recent injury concerns and ineffectiveness, Arrieta could still fill a role on the Mets in 2021, for the right price, of course.
Historically, the former fifth-round pick has relied heavily on his sinker and has utilized it more than 50 percent in each of the last four seasons. Although that usage hasn’t worked out for him during that span and it’s the main cause for his struggles. Unfortunately, the aging hurler lost some velocity on his sinking fastball in 2017 and hasn’t been able to increase it ever since, as it averaged 94.5 mph in 2016 and has ranged between 92-93 mph from 2017-2020.
While this decline in velocity has allowed hitters to generate plenty of hard-contact against Arrieta’s primary pitch, resulting in a career-worst 43.8% hard-hit rate in 2020, it’s still provided some upside in other areas. Since 2017, his sinker has induced at least a 50.0% GB rate and a 20.0% chase rate in three of the last four seasons, but a reduced usage will likely help improve both of these metrics this season.
If the former All-Star were to lower the usage of his sinking fastball below 50 percent, perhaps down closer to 40 percent, opposing hitters would be forced to face his high-80s slider – it finished tied for the fifth-best run value (-6) among all pitchers who faced at least 25 batters with their slider last season – and high-80s changeup more frequently, which might improve the overall performance of his sinker.
Even though Arrieta’s changeup doesn’t receive much attention, it’s actually his best weapon, and yet, it was only utilized 17.0% of the time last season. Taking into account its stellar movements, as it averaged the 13th-most inches of drop (37.6 inches) and finished tied for the ninth-most inches of break (16.5 inches) among all pitchers who threw at least 100 changeups in 2020, there’s no question the 6′ 4″ pitcher needs to increase its usage moving forward.
Taking this a step further, the Texas native’s off-speed offering has served as one of his top strikeout pitches over the years, as it’s produced at least a 30.0% whiff rate in each of the last two seasons. So if its usage is increased above 20 percent, then that could definitely help improve the veteran hurler’s ability to generate swings and misses this season.
With one final spot up for grabs in the rotation, Arrieta – if he’s signed – would likely compete against Lucchesi throughout spring training for that role and the loser of this battle would be sent to the bullpen to serve as a multi-inning reliever. Assuming everyone stays healthy in 2021, whoever’s awarded the fifth spot in the rotation will also probably be sent to the bullpen when Syndergaard returns to action this summer.
While taking this route might not be the most popular decision to make, it’s an option that would keep Peterson as a starter all season long and it’d also provide the Mets with even more depth in the rotation. If the Texas Christian standout can make these adjustments to his pitch selection and find a way to stay healthy, it’s possible he could bounce back in 2021.
