We’re one third of the way through the baseball season. After their extra inning victory on June 1st, the Mets were on a pace for 78 wins, yet still very much in the playoff hunt. The team stood only four games out of the Division lead and 2.5 games out of the Wildcard.
Baseball Prospectus updated their postseason probabilities on MLB.com – and as of May 31st, the Mets had only an 8.2% chance of reaching the postseason.
So according to BP, let’s separate the wheat from the chaff and see which teams have the best chance of reaching the postseason.
Top Playoff Contenders:
1. San Francisco Giants – 91.7%
2. Detroit Tigers – 90.2%
3. Oakland A’s – 88.9%
4. Los Angeles Dodgers – 80.8%
5. Los Angeles Angels – 77.0%
6. St. Louis Cardinals – 68.5%
7. Toronto Blue Jays – 60.1%
8. Milwaukee Brewers – 59.7%
9. Atlanta Braves – 58.4%
10. Washington Nationals – 57.8%
The Muddling Middle:
11. New York Yankees – 47.3%
12. Boston Red Sox – 27.4%
13. Baltimore Orioles – 26.8%
14. Colorado Rockies – 18.3%
15. Seattle Mariners – 17.8%
16. San Diego Padres – 15.8%
17. Texas Rangers – 14.9%
18. Cleveland Indians – 13.7%
19. Cincinnati Reds – 13.1%
20. Tampa Bay Rays – 10.6%
The Land of Make Believe:
21. Pittsburgh Pirates – 9.6%
22. Chicago White Sox – 8.9%
23. Kansas City Royals – 8.9%
24. Miami Marlins – 8.5%
25. New York Mets – 8.2%
26. Minnesota Twins – 7.1%
27. Philadelphia Phillies – 6.1%
28. Arizona Diamondbacks – 1.4%
29. Chicago Cubs – 1.1%
30. Houston Astros – 0.6%
Also on MLB.com was their exclusive interview with Sandy Alderson who couldn’t recall his much publicized wins goal during his conversation.
“My goal was not to win 74 games as we did last year,” Alderson told the team’s web site. “I don’t recall specifically what I wrote down or had in mind.”
A lot can happen over the last two-thirds of the season, but it’s definitely going to be an uphill climb. And on the plus side, we’ve won five of our last six games.
