No matter what happens with the rest of the New York Mets’ roster in any given season, the result almost always feels the same — the squad will ultimately go as far as the pitching staff (and, more specifically, the starting rotation) will carry them.
New York returns to Citi Field just a game behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies (who they will be playing), but also with an 11-10 record that doesn’t exactly scream “playoff bound”. Mickey Callaway‘s club actually enters Monday’s action with a top-10 offense when looking at both wRC+ (111) and runs scored (114), yet still own the National League’s second-worst run differential (-19).
This naturally means the pitching staff hasn’t performed up to expectation. Outside of Edwin Diaz doing his thing, New York’s bullpen has been a disappointment, but not nearly as much as the rotation over the season’s first three-plus weeks.
The Mets’ starting staff owns a collective 1.2 fWAR and 5.56 ERA, both of which rank among the bottom half of the league. New York gets extra points for that rotation ERA, as it currently stands as the sixth worst. It’s still early and one can hope things will stabilize to a degree, but in an unforgiving NL East, Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland need to figure out what’s going on, and fast.
What Needs to Change?
There were a number of things the Mets’ rotation did well in 2018, and most of it hasn’t exactly continued into 2019 thus far.
The rotation’s fWAR production is still very top heavy — Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler have combined for 1.5 fWAR, while Steven Matz and Jason Vargas has combined for -0.1 fWAR. Unfortunately for the Mets, deGrom (who is currently on the 10-day injured list) is the only hurler of that trio to currently own an ERA below 5.90.
A noticeable improvement from 2017 to 2018 for this group was how they dominated quality-of-contact with opposing hitters. At the moment, New York’s starters have induced soft contact at a 17.5% clip, which is around middle of the pack when compared to the rest of baseball. That’s not an overly dramatic difference from the year before, but their collective 41.8% hard-hit rate allowed certainly is. This number currently ranks as the fifth-worst mark in baseball.
On an individual basis, Syndergaard’s 27.4% soft-hit rate allowed is the only one above 20.0% so far this season, while Wheeler’s 27.3% hard-hit rate allowed is the only one below 30.0%.
What’s even more problematic is the rise in free passes, and that coincides with an inability to strand those runners on the base paths. The rotation currently boasts a 9.9% walk rate, which is among the five worst in baseball. While that’s bad enough — especially when combined with 1.48 home runs allowed per nine innings — Mets hurlers aren’t making things easier on themselves with a 65.2% strand rate.
Only the Boston Red Sox (63.1%) and Chicago White Sox (63.9%) are worse in this category.
Scouring the Market For Alternatives?
It’s only been three weeks, though. They’ll figure it out…right?
Well, sure — of course they should. DeGrom is getting an extra breather to shake off his consecutive rough starts, and Syndergaard has been around long enough (and good for long enough) for us to believe his struggles won’t last. Wheeler doesn’t have as long of a track record as these two, but his arrow is pointing up overall when looking at his past two starts.
Matz was off to a terrific start of his own before his last disastrous appearance took place, which always seems to be an underlying concern with the left-hander. And as for Vargas, well, his first 10.1 innings of work (9.58 ERA) have gone just about as well as last year. The back end of the rotation alone should predispose the Mets to constantly be looking for legitimate alternatives, but deGrom’s (hopefully) short stint on the injured list shed light on how serious these inquiries should be.
With Chris Flexen taking the spot start on Saturday, it was crucial for New York to get as much length out of Vargas as possible on Friday. The veteran responded by lasting just four innings, forcing an already underperforming bullpen to pick up the majority of the slack on consecutive days.
BVW seems to be an executive who will always be doing due diligence, but it’s no coincidence that he’s reportedly still chatting with Craig Kimbrel and will probably be interested in what Gio Gonzalez ultimately does. There’s always that Dallas Keuchel guy still out on the open market, too.
Is it early enough for this group to turn things around and keep going in the direction they paved for themselves last season? Yes, but based on the configuration of this pitching staff, the Mets could use another dependable starter at their disposal.
The old adage is that teams can never have enough pitching, and while Van Wagenen did add some depth over the winter, it clearly wasn’t enough. If it was, we wouldn’t be having these thoughts creep into our minds prior to the calendar flipping to May.
