The Mets bullpen is seemingly coming into shape and it is a pretty interesting one. They have about eight or nine guys competing for a handful of jobs. The only people who are guaranteed a job are Trevor May, Aaron Loup, Miguel Castro, and Edwin Diaz. I have excluded Seth Lugo for the time being due to his injury.

A week ago, I would have put Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia on this list but this is a new ownership group. They understand a sunk cost when they see it. Case and point, Brad Brach. Brach has lost a lot of velocity since his days in Baltimore and does not have great command. The Mets essentially decided that his spot on the roster was a lot more valuable than the $3 million they needed to pay him.

Under the previous regime, players who were struggling to produce often found ways to stick around because the Mets did not want to part with a sunk cost.

The Mets have assembled a variety of pitchers who can be sorted into their own groups. They have some former well regarded prospects in Sean Reid-Foley, Sam McWilliams, and Oscar De La Cruz. They also have some relievers with major league success in Mike Montgomery, Jerry Blevins, Arodys Vizcaino, and Tommy Hunter. They also have some guys with intriguing stuff like Drew Smith, Yennsy Diaz, and Stephen Tarpley.

The Mets are essentially counting on some combination of four out of these nine guys to produce at the major league level. There are roughly 126 combinations that the Mets can use out of these guys. I’m not about to break down all 126 combinations but the law of probability says that one of these combinations will make an effective bullpen.

Building a bullpen is an inexact science. In general, giving guys who are not elite big deals have not worked out. In hindsight, Jeurys Familia had shown signs of decline and combining that with his injury history and his workload, the Mets should have likely thought twice about handing him a three-year deal.

Perhaps, Brodie should have consulted the projection systems that told him that Zack Wheeler was not worth his deal with the Phillies. In an attempt not to keep beating a dead horse, even the Yankees and Dodgers have handed out three-year deals to relievers who probably did not justify the contract that they got.

My overarching point is this: handing out big deals to relievers trending in the wrong direction or relievers who do not have tangible results has proven to be a bad strategy. The 2018 Rockies spent about $100 million on three relievers and none of them finished out their contracts with the team.

The Mets traded Jarred Kelenic for Edwin Diaz and while Diaz still has tons of potential, it is also fair to say that the trade will never have a return on the investment of trading Kelenic. I can spend the rest of the article pointing out more examples for making my case here but I think we all get the point. I have a full article detailing the blueprint of building a MLB bullpen.

I really do think the Mets are building a bullpen the right way. They have a bunch of guys who have fit the bill of “breakout reliever.” Guys like Liam Hendriks, Rafael Montero, Nick Anderson, and Austin Adams just breakout over time.

Yes, they are all of different calibers. I just used them as an example to exhibit my point. There is really no reason some of these guys that the Mets have cannot do the same.

Oscar De La Cruz was once thought to be a borderline Top 100 prospect but the Cubs gave up on him because of his command. Sam McWilliams had a bidding war over him because many teams really believe that he is on the verge of becoming a great reliever. Sean Reid-Foley was a high draft pick and was a top-10 prospect in the Blue Jays system as recently as 2019. FanGraphs even identified him as someone who can be a dominant reliever in 2019.

Yennsy Diaz averaged close to 97 on his fastball in 2020. Drew Smith has shown the capabilities of being a MLB reliever at times when he is not being run into the ground. Tommy Hunter had a 3.31 FIP in 2020 and is probably a better pitcher than Brad Brach, Betances, and Familia at this point.

Arodys Vizcaino has had a track record of success at the MLB level when he has stayed healthy. Not to mention he has the velocity to succeed in the majors.  Stephen Tarpley is a lefty with pretty good stuff and made MLB hitters look silly at times.

(Video Courtesy of Baseball Savant)

For the first time that I can recall, the Mets have a surplus of MLB caliber arms that actually have potential. Sorry to his mother and Mrs. Carlyle, but Buddy Carlyle in 2015 does not count as a surplus.

The devils advocate in me wants to point to the arms acquired in 2017 but I do not believe those arms were ever close to being former top prospects like some of the guys on here were.

I can understand the frustration with this off-season to an extent but this is also certainly not the typical Wilpon’s off-season.

Steven Matz would either be the number three starter or he would have been non-tendered. Brad Brach, Jeurys Familia, and Dellin Betances would have guaranteed jobs. They would have not felt the need to bid for Sam McWilliams. They likely would have overpaid Tommy Hunter.

Instead, the Mets have some legitimate arms competing for a handful of jobs. Not to mention, they can still go sign Trevor Rosenthal because I would be a little surprised if they do not sign at least one more reliever. Have hope folks, this Mets bullpen has potential and probability in their favor.