New York Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen had ample opportunity to significantly upgrade the team’s outfield corps this offseason. Knowing full-well Yoenis Cespedes would miss a significant portion of the year, the first-time GM went with a handful of fringe depth additions.
Replacing Cespedes with a starting-caliber outfielder, or simply adding a free-agent centerfielder to allow Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo to comfortably field their natural positions may have been the way to go. Though, hindsight is always 20/20.
Instead, Van Wagenen signed Rajai Davis and Carlos Gomez, presumably hoping one or both would revive their respective careers in Flushing, to no avail. The combination of Conforto, Nimmo, and Juan Lagares — historically an outstanding fielder but not much offense to speak of — did not last long for the Mets, either.
Nimmo (neck) went down in May and Lagares has severely underperformed. Conforto’s having a fine season, but he alone can’t keep this group afloat.
Gomez was released on July 3 after being designated for assignment on June 30. Davis was DFA’d on May 26 (2-for-7, homer, three RBIs with the Mets) but returned to Triple-A Syracuse instead of electing for free agency (.286/.339/.416, eight home runs, 21 RBIs over 279 plate appearances).
Matt Kemp, another Van Wagenen minor-league signing, hasn’t played for Syracuse since June 8 (broken rib; .235/.278/.324 over 36 plate appearances).
Thank goodness for the dynamic capabilities of Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, and to a lesser extent, J.D. Davis. None of these players have had much experience playing outfield in their careers but all have added offensive upside to the group, albeit with varying degrees of defensive liabilities.
As a group, the Mets outfield’s -67 defensive runs saved are 29th in MLB and their -23.5 ultimate zone rating is 28th at the break.
That’s not good, but let’s take a look at the current outfield corps’ respective seasons, thus far and look ahead to what the rest of the year could hold for this group.
Michael Conforto – Grade: B
Conforto, 26, has put his 2017 shoulder injury all the way behind him and is having himself a solid season for the Mets. His .244/.359/.470 slash line, 16 home runs, 44 RBIs, 17 doubles, .349 wOBA, and 121 wRC+ continue to solidify his status as an above-average offensive player.
The Washington native has -1.0 defensive runs saved and a -2.7 ultimate zone rating over 672 innings spent in the outfield this year, 585.2 of which have been in right field (0 DRS, -2.3 UZR).
With free agency looming for Conforto after the 2021 season, one would assume the player will do all he can to continue his progress. And we can only hope the Mets lock him up before he reaches the open market.
Brandon Nimmo – Grade: INC
Brandon Nimmo crashed into the outfield wall in Atlanta on April 14 and exited in the first inning of the Mets contest in Philadelphia two days later.
Diagnosed with a bulging disk in his neck, as well as whiplash, in late May, no timetable has been set for Nimmo’s return to baseball activities.
Over 161 plate appearances this season, the 26-year-old was hitting .200/.344/.323 with a .300 wOBA, 89 wRC+, and an alarming 48 strikeouts.
In the field, Nimmo racked up -3 DRS and a -1.3 UZR over 296.2 innings split closely between centerfield and left-field (139.2 innings and 136.2 innings, respectively; 20.1 in right field).
Hopefully, he does, in fact, return this season and can get back to being the on-base machine we became accustomed to watching.
Juan Lagares – Grade: D
Lagares, 30, signed a four-year, $23 million contract ahead of the 2016 season. Despite struggling to stay healthy and not hitting much over that span (278 games played; .238/.292/.344), he’s been able to get by on his outstanding defensive skills.
Handed the keys to the starting job in center field this season, Lagares is having the worst offensive season of his career and has seen his defensive prowess degrade significantly.
Over 158 plate appearances this season, the Dominican native is slashing .175/.242/.252 with a .215 wOBA and 33 wRC+. In center field, Lagares’ -6 DRS and -4.5 UZR are both substantial career lows.
No wonder he’s all but lost his job. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Lagares ($9.5 million team option for 2020) traded for whatever the Mets can get ahead of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, but we shall see.
Jeff McNeil – Grade: A+
We’re all cognizant of what McNeil, 27, brings to the table offensively. Mets manager Mickey Callaway just needed to find a spot for his talented young hitter to play in the field.
Having been blocked at second base by the offseason acquisition of Robinson Cano, McNeil has taken to the outfield like a fish to water, putting up solid advanced metrics (2.0 DRS, -0.7 UZR over 377 innings) to go along with his all-league stats at the plate.
Over 318 plate appearances, McNeil is slashing .349/.409/.509, the former standing as the best in baseball at the All-Star break. His 11.9% strikeout rate, .390 wOBA, and 147 wRC+ are elite. Simply put, McNeil is a star.
As the season progresses, one of two things will happen for McNeil in the field. Either he’s going to become even more comfortable out there, or his inexperience will begin to show, rusting over the shine he’s worked up so far.
I’m going to go with the first option.
Dominic Smith – Grade: B+
Thisclose to being labeled a bonafide bust, Smith, a former first-round draft pick (2013), has seen his major league career take off in 2019.
A first baseman by trade and initially added to the roster to act as Pete Alonso‘s platoon partner/backup, Smith, 24, lobbied his way into the Mets’ outfield and has played capably.
Over 161 innings in left field, Smith has 1.0 DRS and a -0.4 UZR. Small sample size aside, that’s awfully impressive for a guy who has limited-to-no experience away from first base.
His offense is what forced the organization’s hand, though. After slogging through the first 105 games of his major-league career (.210/.259/.406 over 332 PA; 2017 and 2018), Smith’s highly-touted bat has finally come around.
Through 157 plate appearances this season, Smith has a .304/.389/.551 slash line with eight homers, 10 doubles, 14 RBIs, a .394 wOBA, and 150 wRC+. In limited opportunities or not, that’s pretty awesome. Even better, Dom Smith hasn’t shown much sign of slowing down.
If the Mets think they can find a taker at the deadline while Smith’s value is sky high, the return had better be worth giving up a player, person, and teammate of his caliber.
