The day is here. After a loss in Atlanta followed by two rainouts and a rocky start to their series in Milwaukee that ended with a Sunday win, the Mets’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth is one. However, a doubleheader with Atlanta stands in their way, but things aren’t as convoluted anymore as they were even on Sunday. It’s simple now. Let’s break down the scenarios for the Mets to make it to the postseason…
Monday Scenarios
Entering Monday, the Mets and Braves, both 88-72, hold the final two Wild Card spots. However, the Diamondbacks are still very much in play, and with two games remaining for the Braves and Mets, anything can happen.
Scenario 1: Mets Sweep Braves
If the Mets sweep the Braves, they will clinch a postseason berth, becoming the No. 5 seed, and will play the San Diego Padres. Atlanta will be eliminated, and the Diamondbacks will be the No. 6 seed, rounding out the playoff picture in the National League.
Scenario 2: Mets and Braves Split Series
If the Mets and Braves win one game each, BOTH teams will clinch a Wild Card, and the Diamondbacks will be eliminated. The Mets will earn the No. 6 seed and play Milwaukee, while the Braves will be the No. 5 seed and play San Diego.
The Braves can only be the No. 2 Wild Card team or be eliminated, while the D-backs can only be the No. 3 Wild Card team or be eliminated. The Mets, however, can be the No. 2 or No. 3 Wild Card team or of course, be eliminated. This is thanks to the tiebreaker system.
Scenario 3: Braves Sweep Mets
In this unfortunate scenario, the Mets are eliminated, and the Braves and Diamondbacks clinch the final two Wild Card spots. Of note, the Diamondbacks can only clinch a Wild Card berth if either the Mets or Braves win both games.
Game 1 Importance
While it’s true the Mets will clinch a Wild Card berth if they win just one game in Atlanta, there’s a substantial benefit to winning the first game. Andy Martino of SNY reported Sunday evening that the Mets plan on starting RHP Tylor Megill against Atlanta’s RHP Spencer Schwellenbach. Luis Severino would then be available for game two. However, a game one win means an automatic playoff spot, so there’s less pressure on the pitching staff. Carlos Mendoza can rest his pitchers who he might want to use in higher leverage situations; the first Wild Card game is a little over 24 hours after game two.
Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images
Looking Forward…
As noted above, the winner of game one will have a huge advantage for the Wild Card series beginning Tuesday on the pitching front. Here are some potential pitching scenarios the Mets may throw out if they advance.
If they win game one in Atlanta, there’s a solid chance the Mets may turn the second game into a bullpen game. David Peterson delivered seven strong innings of one-hit ball Sunday, giving the bullpen a much-needed day off. Someone like Jose Buttó might see a bigger workload in game two mixed with lower-leverage arms. This scenario gives Luis Severino an extra day of rest if needed, and gives the Mets the best option for the Wild Card game on the rotation depth.
If they choose to pitch Severino or are forced to, Tuesday’s Wild Card game would feel like a chance for Quintana to start. The Mets would need and want to take advantage of their best option in game one. If they can secure that win, game two might be a combination of a bullpen game. They can start Sean Manaea on short rest with a combination of Buttó.
And if the Wild Card round heads into a game three scenario, you better believe the Mets are calling on David Peterson to start a winner-takes-all game, hoping he gives them a start like he did Sunday in Milwaukee.
