With spring training scheduled to start in 19 days, the Mets have already had an active off season. There’s been an ownership change, and significant player additions (Francisco Lindor, James McCann, Trevor May and Carlos Carrasco, to name a few).
The Mets have upgraded their rotation with Carrasco and the return of Marcus Stroman, their defense with McCann and Lindor, and their bullpen with May. However, the bullpen doesn’t seem to be quite ready for the beginning of the 2021 campaign.
Right now, the bullpen (if the Mets go with an eight-man bullpen) would likely consist of Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, May, Miguel Castro, Brad Brach, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances, and newly-acquired Aaron Loup (Robert Gsellman is also a possibility). The opportunity for an upgrade is obvious if this is the ultimate construct of the bullpen.
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In the above scenario, Loup is the only left-handed reliever. Loup had done well in his career (nine seasons) against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .233 batting average, .302 OBP, and .279 wOBA. The Mets have internal options for another lefty in the bullpen, Daniel Zamora, newly-signed Stephen Tarpley, and old friend Jerry Blevins.
Blevins, now 37 years old, has held left-handed batters to a .213 BA, .270 OBP, and a .259 wOBA. Blevins did not pitch during the shortened 2020 season, and is a non-roster invitee to spring training. Tarpley (who will turn 28 on the day pitchers and catchers are set to report, February 17th), over three seasons has had good numbers against port-side hitters, keeping them to a .203 BA, .310 OBP, and .272 wOBA.
The Mets did not sign Brad Hand when he was available. Hand’s career numbers against lefties may have fit nicely in the bullpen, (.187 BA, .258 OBP, .246 wOBA). Of the Mets right-handed relievers, Diaz, Lugo, and Betances have the best career numbers against left-handed hitters (May also has had some success in this area). However, with the likes of Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Juan Soto in the division, and many other formidable left-handed bats in the National League, it may behoove the Mets to add an additional southpaw reliever.
There are some left-handed relievers still available as free agents, none of whom are particularly appealing. Oliver Perez is available. Perez will be 39 years old in 2021, and posted a combined fWAR of 1.0 in 2019-2020. There may be another reason or two why Perez may not be a favorite to return to Queens. Sean Doolittle will be 34 years old next season, but his combined 2019-2020 fWAR is just 0.5. That brings us to former Met Justin Wilson (33 years old), whose 2019-2020 combined fWAR is .08. Wilson has these career numbers against left-handers .233 BA, .318 OBP, .291 wOBA.
Wilson certainly seems like the logical choice at this point, unless Zack Scott and Sandy Alderson have a trade in the works. Rumors are that they would like to unload Familia and his $11.6 million dollar salary. If they can do that as part of a deal and bring back left-handed reliever, that may solve multiple problems at once. If the Mets sign Wilson, trading Familia may become more about freeing some money and creating the needed roster spot.
It will be interesting to see how the Mets approach the bullpen between now an opening day. They may go with the in-house options, though it may be wise to add another candidate with major league experience to help round out what may be a strong bullpen.
