Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Opening Day is here!

After three straight seasons of uncertainty surrounding baseball – either via COVID or the lockout, Major League Baseball is back in full swing for the 2023 season.

The New York Mets had quite a busy offseason. Newcomers Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga join Max Scherzer and gang in the starting rotation. Omar Narvaez takes over James McCann’s catcher role, and Tommy Pham joins as the fourth outfielder. The Mets could not lock down star infielder Carlos Correa, but they managed to re-sign or extend crowd favorites Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo. Finally, the relief pitcher additions of David Robertson and Brooks Raley look to fortify a now Diaz-less pen.

I am the creator of the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projection system, which has appeared on FanGraphs since 2017. ATC is a “smart” aggregation model of other projection systems. The methodology behind ATC is similar to what Nate Silver does with his presidential forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com and you can read more about it here.

According to FantasyPros, ATC was the most accurate baseball projections in each of the past four seasons. In 2019, FantasyPros named me as the #1 most accurate fantasy baseball expert.

The ATC Projections, which come out each year during the third week of January – are now live for the upcoming 2023 season. Full projections are available on FanGraphs.

Today, I am happy to share with you and review model results for our New York Mets.

2023 Hitters

Here are the 2023 ATC Projections for New York Mets hitters, ranked by projected WAR:

Name AB H HR R RBI SB AVG OBP SLG OPS wRC+ WAR
Francisco Lindor 582 148 23 88 87 15 .255 .328 .430 .758 114 4.5
Brandon Nimmo 506 137 14 86 57 5 .271 .371 .426 .796 130 4.1
Pete Alonso 573 151 38 89 110 4 .264 .350 .513 .863 140 3.8
Jeff McNeil 523 151 9 68 63 4 .290 .350 .410 .760 117 2.9
Starling Marte 498 136 14 79 60 27 .273 .332 .419 .752 114 2.6
Mark Canha 444 108 13 66 55 5 .243 .344 .383 .727 111 1.4
Brett Baty 311 77 11 39 40 2 .248 .323 .401 .724 107 1.3
Omar Narváez 286 67 6 31 31 0 .233 .313 .340 .653 88 1.2
Eduardo Escobar 419 100 16 51 59 1 .238 .296 .416 .711 99 1.1
Luis Guillorme 209 55 2 24 18 1 .263 .345 .335 .680 98 0.8
Daniel Vogelbach 278 64 12 37 40 0 .229 .350 .400 .750 117 0.7
Francisco Álvarez 131 29 6 17 18 0 .226 .316 .399 .714 103 0.6
Tommy Pham 341 79 10 48 39 8 .232 .321 .367 .688 98 0.6
Tomás Nido 209 47 4 21 21 0 .227 .269 .326 .595 67 0.3
Darin Ruf 154 35 6 21 21 1 .228 .322 .394 .717 106 0.3
Danny Mendick 66 15 1 8 7 1 .231 .295 .329 .624 79 0.1
Ronny Mauricio 29 7 1 3 3 1 .237 .263 .375 .638 78 0.1
DJ Stewart 24 5 1 3 3 0 .198 .319 .349 .667 96 0.0
Tim Locastro 64 14 1 8 6 4 .215 .278 .328 .606 73 0.0
Terrance Gore 21 4 0 3 1 5 .191 .262 .238 .500 45 -0.1
Mark Vientos 46 10 2 5 7 0 .226 .290 .405 .695 97 -0.3

 

ATC projects Pete Alonso to lead the Mets in wRC+, HRs, RBI, OPS and slugging percentage. Only Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Kyle Schwarber are projected by ATC to hit more home runs in 2023. Clearly, much of the Mets’ offensive success in 2023 once again hinges upon the Polar Bear.

Leading the team in projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is none other than Francisco Lindor. The shortstop’s defense and speed push him above Alonso as the most all-around player on the 2023 squad. His team-leading 4.5 WAR projection ranks 25th highest for major league hitters.

The 2022 NL batting champ, Jeff McNeil is set to lead the squad once again in the batting average department with a lofty .290 projection. That figure ranks 7th in all of baseball amongst projected qualified hitters.

The Mets on-base king is still Brandon Nimmo (.371) – the 8th-highest projected OBP for MLB hitters in 2023. Statistically, Nimmo should be the team’s leadoff hitter – which he was for all but 3 games in 2022.

Starling Marte should lead the 2023 Mets squad in stolen bases. Now healthy at the start of the season – ATC projects Marte to swipe 27 bags in ‘23.

Despite starting the season out in AAA, Brett Baty is projected for 1.3 WAR. According to ATC, Baty’s projects for 311 AB with 11 HRs and 40 RBI. Depending upon how Baty is performing down on the farm and how the Mets fare early on – he may be up to the big club sooner rather than later.

Rounding out the 1+ WAR players on the team are Mark Canha, Omar Narvaez and Eduardo Escobar. Last year’s pair of signings in Canha and Escobar – teamed with this year’s acquisition in Narvaez – are necessary to provide depth to the roster. The Mets deep offensive roster earned the 4th highest WAR of any team in 2022.

You can find the full 2023 ATC projections for hitters on the FanGraphs website under the projections section, or by clicking here.

Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

2022 Pitchers

Here are the 2023 ATC Projections for New York Mets pitchers, ranked by projected WAR (min 0.0 WAR):

Name G IP W SV HLD SO HR ERA WHIP WAR
Max Scherzer 27 164 12 0 0 198 20 3.10 1.02 4.2
Justin Verlander 28 168 13 0 0 185 20 3.16 1.02 4.1
Kodai Senga 26 148 10 0 0 158 17 3.76 1.24 2.2
David Peterson 40 128 8 0 1 141 12 3.71 1.28 2.0
Carlos Carrasco 27 144 10 0 0 138 19 4.06 1.27 1.8
Tylor Megill 35 81 5 0 1 86 11 3.89 1.19 1.1
José Quintana 13 65 4 0 0 59 7 3.82 1.30 1.0
Adam Ottavino 66 64 5 12 17 75 6 3.49 1.24 0.7
Brooks Raley 54 54 2 6 13 60 5 3.31 1.12 0.6
David Robertson 60 61 4 27 7 73 6 3.58 1.27 0.6
Joey Lucchesi 27 46 2 0 1 43 6 3.94 1.26 0.4
Drew Smith 55 56 3 1 13 61 8 3.72 1.22 0.3
Tommy Hunter 40 44 2 0 4 39 5 3.68 1.23 0.3
Bryce Montes de Oca 30 31 2 0 2 38 2 4.00 1.43 0.2
John Curtiss 48 49 3 1 7 49 6 4.06 1.30 0.2
Jeff Brigham 36 38 2 0 4 43 5 4.09 1.27 0.1
Dennis Santana 36 36 2 0 8 35 3 4.23 1.40 0.1
Elieser Hernandez 33 43 2 0 1 45 8 4.27 1.21 0.1
Stephen Nogosek 41 48 2 0 3 49 7 4.09 1.30 0.1
Stephen Ridings 9 9 1 0 1 11 1 3.47 1.22 0.1

 

First, let’s set the stage in terms of projected rotation.

According to ATC, the five slotted rotation arms to begin the season are Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Carlos Carrasco. Each of these starting pitchers are projected to throw for a minimum of 128 innings. Tylor Megill should slot in as the 6th starter with an 81 innings projection, and free agent signing Jose Quintana is projected to provide a significant number of starts later on in the season.

Max Scherzer is projected for the highest WAR on the Mets at 4.2. He is projected to make 27 starts, lock down 12 wins and strike out 198 batters. He is projected to lead the team in both earned run average and WHIP. Sufficed to say, Scherzer’s health is the largest key to the Mets chances of returning to the playoffs in 2023.

Right behind Scherzer is 2022 American League Cy Young award winner, Justin Verlander. His 4.1 projected WAR ranks 10th in all of baseball (Scherzer is ranked 8th). Verlander is projected to be the Mets’ workhorse with 168 innings. With Scherzer and Verlander at the top of the rotation, the Mets have one of the best 1-2 punches in all of the major leagues.

Projecting foreign transfer players tends to be a difficult task, but ATC projects Kodai Senga for 10 wins, a 3.76 ERA with 158 strikeouts. At a 2.2 WAR, he looks to be the Mets third most valuable pitcher in 2023.

Of note, is David Peterson who made the Mets starting rotation. He dazzled at times in 2022 – with a 27.8% K% propelled by an excellent 12.8% swinging strike rate. He had one of the best sliders by a left-hander in all of baseball last year. Mets fans are looking for even more growth from Peterson in 2023.

Unfortunately, after signing Edwin Diaz to a 5-year $102 million dollar deal back in November – the Mets will likely lose their bullpen anchor for all of the 2023 season. According to ATC, the three highest-valued relief arms for the Mets will be Adam Ottavino (0.7 WAR), Brooks Raley (0.6 WAR) and David Robertson (0.6 WAR). It is hard to predict whether manager Buck Showalter will employ a closer-by-committee approach, or will turn to a regular stopper for the 9th inning – but ATC views all three arms above as qualified for the role. ATC does predict Robertson to get the lion’s share of saves with 27.

You can find the full 2023 ATC projections for pitchers on the FanGraphs website under the projections section, or by clicking here.

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

ATC 2023 Projected Standings & Playoffs Odds – NL East

New for 2023 on FanGraphs, are projected standings and playoff odds powered by the ATC Projections. These figures will be updated daily throughout the course of the 2023 season and can be found here.

Here is a quick look at how ATC views the National League East to shape up in 2023:

Team Proj W Proj L Win Div Clinch Wild Card Make Playoffs Make LDS Win LDS Win LCS Win World Series
Braves 94 68 57.9% 33.4% 91.2% 73.7% 42.6% 24.2% 14.5%
Mets 89 73 23.0% 49.3% 72.4% 46.6% 22.7% 11.1% 6.2%
Phillies 88 75 15.8% 46.0% 61.8% 37.2% 17.6% 8.4% 4.4%
Marlins 81 81 3.3% 22.0% 25.3% 12.6% 5.0% 1.9% 0.8%
Nationals 62 100 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

The Braves are projected to still be the team to beat at 94 wins and a 58% chance of winning the division. The Mets are right behind them with an 89 win projection – good for a 72% chance of making the playoffs and a 6.2% chance of winning the world series.

I am hoping for a fantastic and exciting 2023 season for all Mets fans!