In a in a recent piece on Fangraphs, Josh Barnes takes an in depth look at how Jon Niese had improved the last two months of the 2014 season.
By using an improved change up, Barnes shows how Niese has become more effective and a better pitcher since last August 6th. While Barnes writes this from a fantasy baseball perspective that views Niese as merely an average pitcher, its information is very informative and encouraging. We pick the article up where it graphs Niese’s use of his various pitches in 2013.
Pitch Usage Rate vs RHB
After a career changeup usage rate of 5.8% against RHB, Niese threw it more than 17% of the time against righties in April 2013. But he wasn’t having much success with it. A modest 8.5% swinging strike rate was offset by a lack of command. Also, 49.8% of these changeups were called a ball. The lack of success caused him to return usage closer to career norms last season.
That 8-9% usage trend vs RHB continued in the first 4 months of the 2014 season but here’s where it gets interesting. Over that stretch, the pitch suddenly became effective.
From opening day to his first start in August, Niese was having remarkable success with his changeup. That 49.8% called-ball rate in 2013? Now 37.2%. His swinging strike percentage on the pitch had spiked 3%. Jon Niese finally had a weapon against right-handed hitters.
It was at this point of the season that either Niese, pitching coach Dan Warthen, or somebody else in the Mets organization noticed that his changeup had become a very valuable pitch for him.
Beginning with his August 6th start vs Washington through the end of the season, Niese’s usage of his changeup rose dramatically.
Over this stretch, command of the pitch also kept improving as evidenced by a 36.0% called ball and 12.5% swinging strike rate. In 2014, righties hit just .239 against the changeup with a .114 ISO and a 79 wRC+.
Also interesting, the increased usage from August 6th through the end of the year may have had a side effect of increasing the whiff rate of his other pitches.
Both his four-seam fastball and his cutter fooled few batters over the past couple years. From April 2012 to July 2014, The four-seamer had generated a 7.3% swinging strike rate. The cutter had a marginally better 8.9% swinging strike rate.
During the Aug-Sept stretch finish where he was heavily utilizing his new changeup?
Suddenly having to deal with a solid changeup, righties started swinging and missing at Niese’s other pitches. In this case the rising tide of his changeup definitely lifted all boats.
FanGraphs goes on to give some predictions for the upcoming season, such as a 3.20 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, but in general the findings are very encouraging as the author gives us an in-depth analysis of Niese’s improved repertoire.
Data by Brooks Baseball
