Francisco Alvarez, Photo by Rick Nelson
No. 5 Matt Allan, RHP
Age: 21 (4/17/2001)
HT: 6’3, WT: 217
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 3rd Round of 2019 Draft – Seminole High School
ETA: 2025 Previous MMO Ranking: 4
2019 Statistics (GCL Mets/Brooklyn): 6 G, 10.1 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 14 K
Unfortunately, Matt Allan’s pro stats to this point consists of just a few games that he pitched back in 2019 with the Brooklyn Cyclones. But, while we don’t have any stats from the time, we know that Allan spent the 2020 season working out at the Mets alternate site in Brooklyn and that he improved his changeup.
Allan was then invited to big league camp in 2021 where he shadowed Mets ace Jacob deGrom, and spent time picking the brain of Marcus Stroman. Mets players and coaches raved about Allan’s energy, competitiveness, and drive to want to get better, they were shocked that this California native was only 19 at the time.
Not too long after big league camp in 2021, it was announced that Allan would need Tommy John surgery, making the rest of the year a wash. Then when Allan came to camp this spring, we found out that the young righty needed a follow-up ulnar transposition surgery in January of 2022. While Allan had started playing catch in March, the additional surgery made it even more unlikely that Matt would pitch any significant innings this season.
When healthy, Allan features a four-seamer that sits 95-96 mph and has hit high-90s. He has a little bit of late life on his fastball and has impressed with his ability to use it vertically. His curveball is a plus pitch that was arguably the best coming out of the 2019 draft. The curve is a potential plus pitch at 78-81 with a sharp vertical break and tight spin.
The question for Allan when drafted would he develop a third pitch, and he looked to have done that in 2020 with his changeup. Following the development at the alt site and continued improvement at big league camp, the changeup in the mid-80s is now another potential plus pitch.
That’s how we get to a guy that hasn’t pitched in a regular season game since 2019 and is coming off surgery, but is still a top flight prospect because of the potential all three of his pitches have shown. I still believe in Allan because of his smooth mechanics and complete bulldog mentality as well. Hopefully will have more updates on Allan as we get closer to the summer.
Mark Vientos, Photo by Ed Delany of MMO
No. 4 Mark Vientos, 3B/1B
Age: 22 (12/11/1999)
HT: 6’4, WT: 220
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in 2nd Rd of 2017 Draft – American Heritage High School
ETA: 2023 Previous MMO Ranking: 5
2021 Statistics (Binghamton/Syracuse Mets): 83 G, 18 2B, 25 HR, .281/.352/.581, 146 wRC+
Vientos came into the 2021 season following an only slight above average 2019 season in which he posted a 105 wRC+ and didn’t have the power breakthrough folks were hoping for. That power outburst came in 2021 with the Double-A Binghamton Rumble Ponies and the Triple-A Syracuse Mets when he hit a Mets minor league best 25 home runs.
The 22-year-old wasn’t just the best power hitter in the Mets farm system, he was one of the best in all of minor league baseball. His .300 isolated slugging was tied for 11th among 984 qualified hitters. Five of the 10 hitters above him had already spent time in the big leagues and/or have made their big league debut in the 2022 season.
Vientos hit .281/.346/.580 with 22 home runs in 72 games for Binghamton in 2021 before getting promoted to Triple-A. He was even better in 11 games at the minor leagues highest level, with a .278/.395/.583 with three home runs. His strikeouts only went up slightly from 28% in AA to 30% in AAA and his walk rate doubled from 8% all the way to 16% with Syracuse in a small sample.
Those numbers haven’t carried over to the 2022 season yet, in fact, Vientos has struggled a bit to a 93 wRC+. Unfortunately, he’s also struggling defensively at third base and he did so in camp this spring as well. Vientos put in the effort to be in good physical condition, but he doesn’t have the quick actions nor the agility to be an average defender at third. With that in mind (and versatility) the Mets played Vientos in both left field and first base in 2021, and he has three games at first this season.
Ultimately, I think Vientos ends up being a player who plays both corner infield spots but definitely provides more defensive value at first. Which certainly limits the overall value for the Mets and other teams. But, and back to the offensive side, Vientos is a guy that has some of the best pure power in the minor leagues and that will provide him with offensive value at first base or DH. During the 2021 season, Vientos was posting Pete Alonso like exit velocities numbers in Double-A and Triple-A.
Ronny Mauricio, Photo by Rick Nelson
No. 3 Ronny Mauricio, SS
Age: 21 (4/04/2001)
HT: 6’3, WT: 222
B/T: S/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent in 2017
ETA: 2023 Previous MMO Ranking: 3
2021 Statistics (Brooklyn/Binghamton): 108 G, 15 2B, 5 3B, 20 HR, .248/.296/.449, 97 wRC+
The 2021 season was an interesting one for Mets shortstop prospect Ronny Mauricio. He showed up to spring training as a big man, he had clearly gotten a little bit taller and added at least 25 pounds. Mauricio showed off that added muscle by hitting a career-high 20 home runs in only 423 at-bats. To put that power jump into perspective, Mauricio had seven career home runs in 697 at-bats prior to the 2021 season. All of that while being three years younger than the league average in Brooklyn where he played a majority of the season and four years young when he got a cup of coffee in Double-A to finish off the year.
On the flip side for Mauricio, the 21-year-old didn’t walk, at all. His 5.4% walk rate was among the lowest in the minors and was the third lowest among Mets minor leaguers. But, that wasn’t because Mauricio was striking out a ton, the switch-hitter struck out 24.7% of the time, right around average and impressive given his age and power numbers.
Through 20 games this season, Mauricio is continuing most of the trends he showed last year with good power numbers and no walks. He’s slashing .282/.321/.485 with a 127 wRC+, but is only walking 4.6% of the time. Mauricio also looks like he has improved on the base paths with six stolen bases (two caught stealing) already this year after swiping a career-high 11 bases (seven caught stealing) in 2021.
One last thing to note on Mauricio’s offense this year is that he’s gone from very much a groundball hitter in the past to a guy hitting fly balls around 45% of the time this year. The switch hitter has shown slightly more power and better contact skills from the right side of the plate, but I don’t think there’s a significant difference.
On the defensive side, it looks like Mauricio’s days at shortstop should be over. His range isn’t the same since getting bigger and his defense at shortstop has been below average going back to winter league action during the offseason. And of course, a guy named Francisco Lindor is going to be playing shortstop for a long time in New York. As Mauricio gets closer to the big leagues, it will be interesting to see what other positions and when the Mets expose Mauricio to them. Mauricio did shag fly balls during Mets spring camp this year and took ground balls at third during practice in winter ball. His arm might be a bit stretched for third base and not sure his size is a fit at second, so left field feels like the natural fit to me.
Brett Baty, Photo by Rick Nelson
No. 2 Brett Baty, 3B
Age: 22 (11/13/1999)
HT: 6’3, WT: 210
B/T: L/R
Acquired: 1st RD Pick in 2019 – Lake Travis High School
ETA: 2023 Previous MMO Ranking: 2
2021 Statistics (Brooklyn/Binghamton): 91 G, 22 2B, 3B, 12 HR, 56 RBI, 6 SB, .292/.383/.473, 132 wRC+
The biggest change I saw from Baty during the 2021 season was the improved defense at third base, a position some wondered if he would stay at long-term and I believe he will. Baty got himself into great shape coming into the 2021 season and he saw improved quickness moving to his left and right at third. Baty has a plus arm that he has also shown on the run and coming in on balls over the last year plus. The Mets had Baty play left field some in 2021 to get him versatility, and he looks playable there as well.
As you can see from the .292/.383/.473 slash line that Baty put up last season between Brooklyn and Binghamton, he’s a well-rounded hitter. He hits line drives to all fields, has a good eye at the plate, and has shown good power. There’s still potentially some untapped power as Baty learns to elevate the ball with more consistency. Baty led all Mets minor leaguers with a 55.8 groundball percentage last season and his 21.6 flyball percentage was the lowest. Baty has showed improvement in those areas to begin the 2022 season with a 42% groundball rate and a 30% flyball rate.
Baty has also seen his walk rate drop a little to 11% and his strikeout rate go up a bit to 27% in 27 games for Double-A Binghamton to begin the season. He is hitting .283/.372/.455 with 11 doubles and two home runs for the Rumble Ponies. Baty has a 137 wRC+ for Binghamton.
The Texas native is a consensus Top 75 prospect in baseball with Baseball Prospectus having his highest rating at No.13. Baty projects to be an everyday third baseman that is solid defensively and will be above average offensively. The big question that remains is will we ever see that raw power from Baty really take off? That could take him from a solid regular to an All-Star caliber player.
No. 1 Francisco Álvarez , C
Age: 20 (11/19/2001)
HT: 5’10, WT: 233
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent in 2019
ETA: 2023 Previous MMO Ranking: 1
2021 Statistics (St. Lucie/Brooklyn): 99 G, 18 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 70 RBI, .272/.388/.554, 148 wRC+
Mets top prospect Francisco Alvarez has made it clear during spring training that his goal for the 2022 season was to make it to the big leagues. Certainly a lofty goal for the 20-year-old, but that shows you the type of drive and confidence that he has. The catching prospect was coming off a monster season in which he hit .272/.388/.554 with 24 home runs and 70 RBIs in 99 games between Low-A St. Lucie and High-A Brooklyn.
Álvarez was hitting a ridiculous .417/.567/.646 in his first 15 games for St. Lucie before the promotion to Brooklyn. A reminder that Álvarez was playing in full-season ball for the first time and there was no season in 2020. The human wrecking ball would then hit .247/.351/.538 with 22 home runs in 58 games for Brooklyn. Great numbers for anyone, and even more impressive for a 19-year-old catcher playing by far a career-high in games. He struck out 25% of the time, again not bad given the circumstances and his 12% walk rate was strong as well.
Álvarez quickly backed up his big league aspirations with a strong showing in Mets camp including a long home run against the Marlins. A couple weeks later he looked good again in a sim game with Buck Showalter watching. Showalter said the young catcher was “as advertised”.
Álvarez then begin the season at Double-A Binghamton, as the youngest player in the entire league. And what a start he got off to. The well-built right-handed hitter blasted four home runs and knocked in 10 runs in his first six games in Double-A. In the seventh game, he reached base three times but it’s been downhill fast since then. In 15 games since, Francisco has hit just .145/.270/.194 with zero home runs and only two doubles. He’s now hitting .209/.314/.419 with a 108 wRC+ in 23 Double-A games.
Obviously, you’re dealing with small sample sizes here with Álvarez in Double-A this year and pitchers were always going to make an adjustment and know it’s the talented hitters turn to do the same. His walk rate has been a little lower and strikeout rate a tad higher compared to 2021, but certainly nothing concerning for a 20-year-old hitting in Double-A. I have noticed him chasing a bit more lately as pitchers try to avoid getting beat by a big-time power hitter, certainly one of the adjustments he will have to make.
Álvarez has already shown off his plus power in games and has also shown good knowledge of the strike zone as well. He has a short, fast bat path that allows him to barrel balls at an elite level and show off power to all fields. Álvarez has also been impressive in laying off bad breaking balls to make sure he gets himself in hitters counts. Again, he’s going to play the entire 2022 season at only 20 years old.
Defensively, Álvarez has already shown a ton of improvement in his blocking and framing ability and he’s always had a strong arm. He has worked hard to improve all-around, and you can seen the results, particularly in his blocking this year. The youngster is very attentive to the pitcher’s needs as well, showing a good knack for knowing when to talk to a pitcher. That said, catcher is a grueling position and Álvarez is still learning the game behind the plate after only hitting the 162-games played mark recently.
Overall, you can understand why the young catcher is a consensus top 15 prospect in baseball by the national publications and top 10 prospect by most of them. Álvarez is obviously a gifted player, but he’s also an extremely hard worker that has worked to improve himself in a short time in pro ball. His polished offensive skill set is rare at 20, and his defense is certainly not a huge crutch.
I want to thank everyone one for bearing with me as this took way more time than I expected to write this out. I wanted to make sure I had the chance to write about all 50 prospects by myself and that was a lot of work!
I will have an updated list shortly that is adjusted for things I saw in minor league camp and the early going in the minor league season.
