While Terry Collins said his mapped out plan to manage the innings of Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard is under lock and key, I think I’ve picked the lock.
I’ve mapped out the remaining 53 games and, barring injury, weather, or any other setbacks, I’ve figured out how the Mets can manage the remaining schedule, keep all the pitchers in the rotation, and give everyone five days between starts down the entire stretch.
Starting with Friday’s game against the Rays, the current rotation is running Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Matt Harvey.
With the off day on August 6th, everyone is getting an extra day of rest going into the weekend this time around the rotation.
The Mets have off days on August 17th, August 20th, September 3rd, September 17th, and September 28th. All starters will have an extra day by virtue of the calendar.
I’m expecting to see spot starters on August 12th against the Rockies, August 26th against the Phillies, and September 1st against the Phillies.
The spot start on the 12th will be between Harvey and deGrom’s turn in the rotation. Jacob is getting an extra day before his start on the 7th as a result of the off day, but by inserting a spot starter against the Rockies on this day, he (as well as the rest of the guys behind him) get an extra day. With the off days on the 17th and 20th, everyone is getting an extra day of rest. There are no scheduled off days between August 21st and September 2nd, so a spot start on August 26th after deGrom’s start gives Noah an extra day of rest. Another spot start on September 1st also gives Syndergaard another extra day.
As long as Steven Matz can come back to action in mid-September, I’m looking for him to join the rotation as the sixth man when the rotation would turn around to another time when the Mets would again be looking for a “spot start” on September 9th in a crucial game against the Nationals (ahead of Bartolo Colon). The rotation would then cycle through with six guys for the duration.
Based on the above scenario, we would be looking at 10 starts left for Syndergaard (which could be cut to 9 if the Mets clinch before the final weekend). Harvey, deGrom Niese, and Colon would have 9 remaining starts, and Matz would have 4 starts. Harvey and deGrom can be cut back to 8 should the Mets clinch before the final series.
The series in Washington against the Nationals on September 7-9 would map out to deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz. Should the division still be up for grabs the final weekend of the season, the Mets would be lined up to drop the hammer with Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard to battle for the division head to head against the Nationals.
Of course, clinching the division before the final weekend with the Nats allows the Mets to set up the rotation how they want it for the playoffs.
Nine more starts for Harvey and deGrom projects to between 54-63 more innings (based on between 6-7 innings per start). Ten more starts for Syndergaard projects to another 60-70 innings. These regular season totals can be reduced should the Mets clinch before October 2nd. Should the Mets clinch before October 2nd, the team would be able to set their rotation to roll Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz right on through the postseason.
Here is my map – let’s see how close I am to the actual plan:
8/8 – Syndergaard vs. Rays
8/9 – Colon vs. Rays
8/10 – Niese vs. Rockies
8/11 – Harvey vs. Rockies
8/12 – Spot starter vs. Rockies
8/13 – deGrom vs. Rockies
8/14 – Syndergaard vs. Pirates
8/15 – Colon vs. Pirates
8/16 – Niese vs. Pirates
8/17 – off day
8/18 – Harvey vs. Orioles
8/19 – deGrom vs. Orioles
8/20 – off day
8/21 – Syndergaard vs. Rockies
8/22 – Colon vs. Rockies
8/23 – Niese vs. Rockies
8/24 – Harvey vs. Phillies
8/25 – deGrom vs. Phillies
8/26 – Spot starter vs. Phillies
8/27 – Syndergaard vs. Phillies
8/28 – Colon vs. Red Sox
8/29 – Niese vs. Red Sox
8/30 – Harvey vs. Red Sox
8/31 – deGrom vs. Phillies
9/1 – Spot starter vs. Phillies
9/2 – Syndergaard vs. Phillies
9/3 – off day
9/4 – Colon vs. Marlins
9/5 – Niese vs. Marlins
9/6 – Harvey vs. Marlins
9/7 – deGrom vs. Nationals
9/8 – Syndergaard vs. Nationals
9/9 – Matz vs. Nationals
9/10 – Colon vs. Braves
9/11 – Niese vs. Braves
9/12 – Harvey vs. Braves
9/13 – deGrom vs. Braves
9/14 – Syndergaard vs. Marlins
9/15 – Matz vs. Marlins
9/16 – Colon vs. Marlins
9/17 – off day
9/18 – Niese vs. Yankees
9/19 – Harvey vs. Yankees
9/20 – deGrom vs. Yankees
9/21 – Syndergaard vs. Braves
9/22 – Matz vs. Braves
9/23 – Colon vs. Braves
9/24 – Niese vs. Reds
9/25 – Harvey vs. Reds
9/26 – deGrom vs. Reds
9/27 – Syndergaard vs. Reds
9/28 – off day
9/29 – Matz vs. Phillies
9/30 – Colon vs. Phillies
10/1 – Niese vs. Phillies
10/2 – Harvey vs. Nationals
10/3 – deGrom vs. Nationals
10/4 – Syndergaard vs. Nationals
If it comes down to needing the final weekend to make the postseason, we will be lined up to have the horses we want.
