Per ESPN’s Adam Rubin via Twitter, Lucas Duda will be the 2017 starting first baseman. When asked if he thinks prospect Dominic Smith would have a chance in Spring Training, Rubin said, “He has not played above Double-A, so no. Lucas Duda is the 2017 first baseman. Then it’s potentially Dominic Smith’s turn.”
The Mets will probably be active on the free agent/trade market this offseason, however it seems that first base is not somewhere they will be looking to upgrade.
Despite having an unimpressive, injury shortened 2016 during which he batted just .229 with seven HR and 23 RBIs, Duda has proven in the past to be a productive hitter.
Between 2014-2015, Duda, 30, slashed .249/.350/.483 while crushing 57 home runs and producing 165 RBIs. He is a streaky hitter, but when he gets hot he is unstoppable and is as dangerous as any hitter.
Dominic Smith, 21, has been making great progress in the Minor Leagues, with 2016 being his best season yet. Playing his entire season at AA Binghamton (130 games), he slashed .302/.367/.457 with 14 home runs and 91 RBIs. He’s always had the potential for home run power, but it finally translated last year, doubling his career home run total as he hit 14 from 2013 to 2015.
The 11th overall pick of the 2013 draft, Smith seems to be the future at first base for the Mets. However, with Duda still under team control for one more year, his path to the show is being blocked. Furthermore, Duda’s trade value is as low as could be right now, having missed most of last season with a serious back injury and under-performing when healthy. A trade involving him this offseason is unlikely.
If he performs for the first half of the season and Smith continues his phenomenal hitting in the Minors, the Mets could feasibly trade Duda at the deadline if there are other needs to address at the time.
While Dominic Smith is not going to start the season as the Mets’ first baseman, he seems to be close to ready. Saying he will be the 2018 starting first baseman would be a safe bet, but don’t be surprised if you see him in New York next season.
