As Herman’s Hermits famously sang, “second verse, same as the first.” Only in this case, it’s “fourth session, same as the first (and all preceding ones)”, no progress toward a new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Representatives from Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players’ Association met for a fourth consecutive day in Jupiter, Florida on Thursday, and as the clock ticks toward the February 28 deadline to salvage an on-time Opening Day, the two sides are essentially no closer to to a deal than they were on Monday where the daily sessions began.

On Thursday, some of the faces changed. On the owners’ side, Hal Steinbrenner of the Yankees joined the negotiating crew. Lance McCullers Jr. and Miguel Rojas participated for the first time on the players’ side. However, being generous, only incremental progress was made. There was some hope that bringing Steinbrenner in, representing the more flexible large market clubs, might help the process, but that did not seem to have an impact.

Here is the daily recap, from Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com

For context, the tweak on service time proposed by the union would provide a full year of service time to 20 more players each year, versus their prior offer that would have provided the year of service time to 29 more players. Evan Drellich of The Athletic provides further detail in his tweet below.

The players moved a bit on draft order, but did not back down from having seven teams in the draft lottery, at a time when the owners have offered four. Jeff Passan of ESPN.com provides details of the MLBPA’s proposal on the draft.

Lottery for the top 7 picks among the 18 non-playoff teams (Note: MLBPA is proposing a
12-team playoff while MLB is asking for 14)

Remainder of picks after the 7 that are in the lottery go in reverse order of winning
percentage, unless …
For teams that don’t pay revenue sharing
Finish bottom 8 in winning % for three straight years, can’t pick higher than 10th
Finish bottom 8 for four straight years, pick 18th
For teams that pay revenue sharing:
Finish bottom 8 for two straight years or bottom 12 for three consecutive, can’t
pick higher than 10th
Finish bottom 12 for four straight years, pick 18th

Percent chance for lottery picks: Bottom 3 teams (15% each), 4th worst (12.5%), 5th worst
(10%), 6th worst (8%), 7th worst (6.5%), 8th worst (5%), gth worst (3.25%), 10th worst
(2.25%), 11t worst (1.5%), 12th worst (1.25%), 13th worst (1.12%), 14th worst (1%), 15th
worst (.88%), 16th worst (.75%), 17th worst (.625%), 18th worst (.375%)

If a club eligible for a competitive-balance pick – defined as a team from the 10
smallest markets or among those with the 10 lowest revenues – qualifies for the
playoffs, it receives an extra draft choice directly after the first round
If a club eligible for a competitive-balance pick is .500 or better, it receives an extra draft choice directly after the second round

The last line of Rogers’ tweet above is, of course, most concerning. If MLB and the MLBPA are as far apart as they are, and have nothing to discuss, that is a very bad sign. They have agreed to meet Friday, but will they have anything to talk about?

Let’s give the players and owners something to talk about on Friday. We have discussed many times that there will be no deal unless the union and the clubs come together on the three core economic issues. The draft lottery is fine, but neither it nor the Universal Designated Hitter will drive the sides to a deal.

Revenue Sharing

Teams share 48% of local revenue. The players want less revenue shared, because teams on the receiving end do not always invest that money on their major league team. The players are correct, it’s not hard to figure that out. So let’s not change the amount revenue sharing, rather how about a salary floor of $100 million? In 2022, 14 teams are projected to have payrolls under $100 million. The amount of the floor can escalate each year. Basically, here’s some money, but you have to spend it on the purpose for which it’s intended. The players see that the money they generate goes back into salaries, and teams should be more competitive as a result.

Pre-Arbitration Players

First, let’s look at the minimum salary. In 2021, it was $570,500. The players have proposed $775,000 for 2022, and the owners are at $640,000. Meet in the middle at $700,000 and raise it $10,000 each year, as the owners have proposed. Regarding the pre-arbitration pool, the union wants 80% of “Super Two” players eligible, the owners are adamant on 22% of such players. Meet at 50%, and adjust the amount to money in the pool accordingly, $50 million would be a compromise. The playoffs will be expanding, and projections are the $100 million more in revenue will be realized. That covers the increased outlay here, with some left over.

Competitive Balance Tax

It’s a soft salary cap. Very few teams exceed it. So, let’s raise it somewhat to give the players something they are seeking. MLB has proposed a first-year threshold  of $214 million, up from $210 million. The players have asked for $245 million. They are $31 million apart, so split the difference. The first year’s threshold becomes $230 million, and it goes up $5 million each year, more modestly than the players have been requesting.

However, leave the tax rates as they are in the current CBA. They work to discourage spending as they are, no need to raise them. The owners’ current proposal of 80% for the the first “offense” then 100% for all subsequent overages is onerous and not realistic.

Maybe they don’t align as exactly as proposed here, but significant movement like this can at least jump start negotiations that have been stalled for three months. And then there’s the biggest matter of them all. Baseball cannot afford to miss games. The Commissioner himself called this proposition “devastating.”

MLB is not concerned about our need for entertainment. So, don’t treat us as fans. Treat us as paying customers, the people who infuse, directly or indirectly, $10 billion annually into this game. MLB and the MLBPA need to get in a room, and figure this out before games, and more importantly customers, are lost.