Here they are, what you’ve all been waiting for… ESPN’s Keith Law released his Top 100 Prospects for 2015 and the Mets had an impressive showing with six players making the cut.
Noah Syndergaard RHP (No. 17)
Syndergaard just keeps chugging along fairly quietly compared to most pitchers who throw 95-plus, getting results while refining his off-speed stuff gradually but consistently. He’s now to the point where he seems like the safest bet of any of the premium pitching prospects on this list. Syndergaard will hold mid-90s into the seventh inning, working with what seems like negative effort, and his changeup is plus at 78-79. His curveball, about a grade-35 pitch when he was first drafted by Toronto in 2010, has advanced to be at least solid-average, showing as a 55 in most outings, playing up in particular because he can throw the pitch for strikes.
His Triple-A stat line was hurt by his home park, a very good environment for hitters, and some generally bad luck, but to the extent that it forced him to continue to refine his command — which is already a strength — the experience won’t hurt him. The Norse God of Velocity is ready for the call to Queens, with the floor of an above-average starter who can carry 200-plus-inning workloads.
Michael Conforto OF (No. 41)
Conforto was the best pure college hitter in the 2014 draft class, with a tremendous combination of feel to hit, an advanced approach and above-average power, but he slipped to the 10th overall pick probably because he’s limited to playing left field, in which he had a rough reputation dating back to his freshman year. He has improved significantly on defense between his reads on balls and his throwing accuracy and now projects as an average or better defender there.
What he truly brings to the table, however, is his bat. He loads a little high and deep, but his hands are quick, so he can get the bat head into the zone quickly, and he rotates his hips well for power from right field out to center. He’s a patient hitter — he led Division I in OBP and walks in the spring and finished fifth in the New York-Penn League in OBP this summer — but he’s not passive. I see him as a fantastic two-hole hitter, posting high averages and OBPs with 20-homer power while adding value with his defense and smart baserunning.
Kevin Plawecki C (No. 45)
Ask anyone in a major league front office about the state of catching in MLB, and you’ll probably get a scatological term in response: There isn’t enough of it to go around, and if you aren’t lucky enough to have one of the dozen or so good ones, you’re constantly looking to upgrade. That means prospects such as Plawecki, a good receiver who can hit and is about ready for the majors, have very high value not just in terms of future production, but also in the trade market. Plawecki, the Mets’ second-round pick in 2012 out of Purdue, has great hands behind the plate and should be a strong framer pitchers want to throw to, with a good feel for the softer aspects of catching, such as game-calling. His arm is just average, and I think even with his work ethic, he’ll top out as a 30 percent caught-stealing guy.
At the plate, he might have the shortest swing of anyone in the top 100, very consistent and simple, with strong hands to let him run into a dozen or so homers a year with a slew of doubles. His ability to hit for average should separate him from other catchers — only five regular or semi-regular catchers hit .280 in 2014, and only 14 hit even .260 — with added value from his glove, all boosted by the fact that he could play every day for someone by the middle of 2015.
Dominic Smith 1B (No. 65)
Smith’s superficial stats don’t give Mets fans a lot of confidence in his future, but he actually had a very solid year considering his age, experience and home ballpark. Smith was just 19 years old in Class A Savannah, going to a full-season league less than a year out of high school, whereas other recent Mets first-rounders, such as Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini, spent a second summer in short-season ball first. Savannah is a terrible park for left-handed hitters, especially for pull power, so Smith worked on going the other way much of the season, with far more of his extra-base hits going to left than to right. He has grade-70 raw power, but we may not see much of it until he reaches Binghamton late in 2015, or more likely 2016. He’s an excellent defensive first baseman with a 70-grade arm, although defense at that position is secondary to offense. Don’t be alarmed if his home run total is still low in the Florida State League this year, but once he reaches Double-A, I expect Smith to hit double-digit homers and peak at 20-plus per year in the majors, with high batting averages and OBPs north of .350, making him an above-average or better regular at first.
Amed Rosario SS (No. 69)
Rosario was my sleeper prospect for the Mets last year, and the $1.75 million the Mets paid him in 2012 looks like it’s going to more than pay off. Rosario is a toolshed, with athleticism, strength, plus raw power and a laser arm. He’s a true shortstop with very good actions at the position, including soft hands and excellent reads on balls in front him on which he has to come in or in front of the bag. His bat is a blur through the zone, and he keeps his hands inside the ball exceptionally well. His approach is very mature for his age, atypical of an 18-year-old playing with much older competition; he’ll hit the other way and show power there as well, with more than half of his career home runs going out to right-center.
He has broad shoulders and might fill out some but doesn’t project to outgrow the position. He’ll need to be challenged by better pitching, especially pitchers who can locate their off-speed stuff, which he might not see until high Class A or Double-A. Savannah has a brutal park for power, so his superficial stats might not show much progress this year, but if he keeps his contact rate up and works on adjusting to changing speeds, he won’t be there for long.
Brandon Nimmo OF (No. 91)
He profiles as an everyday right fielder between his defense and potential for .380-.400 OBPs, but I’d like to see better results when he puts the ball in play against lefties.
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Not bad, not bad… I was hoping Matz would sneak in but I’m pretty thrilled.
I’ve got some great news for you, Keith Law was kind enough to agree to an interview with our own Tommy Rothman this morning. It’s very in depth and the two of them covered a lot of Mets topics. We’ll be posting it in the morning for you.
