Going into next season, the only ambiguous outfield position is center field. With Yoenis Cespedes is anchored in left and the “Michael Conforto in center field” experiment seeming to be over, the starting center fielder job is up in the air.
While many fans think spending extra money on Lorenzo Cain is the best way to approach center field for 2018, two players currently on the Mets are fighting hard for the spot: Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo.
In yesterday’s day-night double header against the Nationals, both players had good days at the office. Lagares went 4-for-10 with a double, RBI, stolen base and two runs scored while Nimmo went 3-for-9 with a home run, two RBIs and two runs scored.
Nimmo and Lagares are two different players, for more reasons than Nimmo being a lefty hitter and Lagares a righty. When talking about center field, defense is always an essential topic of conversation and that is where Nimmo is at the biggest disadvantage in this comparison.
Juan Lagares, as we all know, is an impeccable center fielder. In just 56 games this season he has 12 DRS and a 4.9 UZR. When he won his Gold Glove in 2014, he had 26 DRS and an 18.6 UZR – almost as good as 2013 when he tallied 28 DRS and a 24.4 UZR.
While his playing time has diminished over the last two seasons due to injury and a crowded outfield, he finally has the opportunity to remind everyone what he can do with his glove and arm, and he has done just that with his superb defensive numbers this season.
Nimmo, on the other hand, is a very average defender. His best position is left field, where he has a career 1.2 UZR and 1 DRS in 116.2 innings. The sample size of his time in center field is pretty small, having only played 61.1 innings there and only tallying 15 putouts. Overall he has a -0.1 UZR and -1 DRS in center field.
Nimmo and Lagares are two different offensive players as well. Nimmo is more patient and draws a lot of walks, while Lagares, well, doesn’t. In Nimmo’s brief exposure this season, he has hit .261 but thanks to 13 walks in 83 plate-appearances, he has a superb .378 on-base percentage.
In 158 plate-appearances this season, Lagares has only walked eight times. While his batting average is comparable to Nimmo’s at .262, his on-base percentage doesn’t stand a chance at just .308. It is important to note that Lagares has a .319 BABIP while Nimmo sports a lofty .370 mark this season.
Besides their plate discipline and defense, Nimmo and Lagares are two similar players. Lagares is slightly faster, but Nimmo is a slightly better baserunner. Lagares has slightly more power, but Nimmo smiles a bit more. Okay, he smiles a lot more, but that’s not as important in this discussion.
When it comes down to it, the question becomes, “Who will give the Mets a better chance to win?” While they both have the potential to be good players, I have to answer that question with Juan Lagares. If they both produce similar offensive numbers, Lagares is the more valuable player due to his defense.
As I mentioned before, they have an almost identical batting average but Nimmo gets on base far more. Despite that, Lagares has a 1.5 WAR compared to Nimmo’s 0.3 mark. Lagares has appeared in 64 games and Nimmo only 38, but if you double Nimmo’s numbers to 76 games and a 0.6 WAR the difference is still apparent.
The Mets have another month of 2017 as well as 2018 spring training to make a decision between these two. If they go out and sign someone like Lorenzo Cain the discussion will shorten, but if the Mets decide to spend elsewhere like, for example, third base, it will come down to Lagares and Nimmo for center field.
