Through eight games this season, the New York Mets offense has been less than inspiring, ranking dead last in the NL in hits, runs scored, Avg, OBP, OPS, and extra base hits. While this is just a small sample size and nothing to get overly concerned about yet, it does give us a not too distant reminder of the early season offense during the 2015 season.
One of the alarming imbalances to this team, is that its standard 1 through 8 lineup consists of four players – Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda, and Michael Conforto – who regularly face a defensive shift when at the plate. This means that half of the Mets’ starting lineup are at a statistical disadvantage.
When you look at those players, and realize that against a traditional balanced defense they would each have close to a .300 avg and a .900 OPS, it makes you wonder what needs to be done to counter the shift.
Lucas Duda in particular is a dead pull hitter, accumulating only 5 ground balls to the 3rd base position during the entire 2015 season, so there is no surprise that teams vacate the 3rd base position in favor of adding an extra right side infielder.
We saw what Duda could do against a standard alignment in 2011 when he had a .292 avg and .852 OPS before teams started implementing the shift.
However, while Duda has shown little ability to be capable of hitting even soft contact on the ground the other way, Granderson, Conforto, and Cespedes all have the ability to choke up and make contact towards the 3rd base position. Understanding that making solid contact is not always what is required to obtain a hit, sometimes it’s better to make soft contact in an attempt hit the ball where the defense isn’t. We have seen all too much of players like Eric Hosmer sacrifice power, instead hitting a soft chopper or dropping a bunt to the left side of the infield to secure a hit, start a rally, or continue an inning.
The issue is that the Mets seem locked in on an antiquated philosophy that our power bats need to always produce power and we have too many players that seem to swing for the fences each time up.
Despite the steroid era and love affair with the homerun, despite all the advanced metrics in today’s game, and despite all the advanced scouting and defensive shifts we see, the philosophy of getting men on, getting men over, and getting men in is still the prevailing goal.
There is noting in the rule book that says Lucas Duda and Yoenis Cespedes have to launch balls over the fence every time at bat, or that Duda and Granderson have to drive in runs via the extra base hit.
Baseball is in a transition phase, and teams that are successful are starting to revert back to the 80’s way of producing offense. Directional hitting to beat the shift, less home runs and more speed – opportunistic baseball is the key to offense these days.
Do we still have team offense’s that are successful via the homerun, of course we do. Teams like the Astros and Cubs have double digit homerun bats littered throughout their lineups. But we have seen that come playoff time, runs are at a premium, and good pitching still beats power bats.
The teams that are successful are the teams that have balance and can scratch out a run. Teams like the St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals, and San Francisco Giants are all teams that have won World Series in the past 6 seasons that all have a strong pitching foundation surrounded by an offense that is balanced and can manufacture runs in a multitude of ways (adapt and overcome, situational hitting, take what the defense gives you).
It’s time for the Mets to start playing some small ball… Take what the defense gives you and it’s okay to let the next man up drive in the runs in the right situation. Keep the inning going, or start the inning off with a simple bunt, or soft ground ball through the vacated hole.
The Mets power will come. Once the weather warms up and the Flushing Bay winds subside, the balls will start to leave Citi Field. But in October and November when the cold temps returns and the winds are howling, the Mets will still need to know how to manufacture runs. So lets get a solid philosophy started now — a foundation of getting on base and generating runs the old fashion way.
All too often power can be streaky and go into slumps,. But when that happens, a well rounded team can find other ways to score runs, and that is what the Mets need to learn and implement now.
The defenses have made their move, so now it’s time to adjust and counter punch. If you are going to implement a defensive shift against us, then we will simply take what you are giving us, hit the ball where you are not, and you can deal with the next man up. We will put runners on base, drive up pitch counts, and make you adjust your philosophy. After all, isn’t that what baseball is all about, making adjustments? So lets adjust and get this offense rolling, time to beat the shift.
