Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

If we had to make a list of New York Mets position players who have played a pivotal role thus far in 2021, that shortlist includes infielder Jonathan Villar. Just like we all expected, right?

When the Mets signed Villar to a one-year, $3.55 million deal on the eve of Spring Training, it likely made some people scratch their heads. Sure, he was ticketed for a bench role, but he also had just come off a 2020 campaign in which he posted a 66 wRC+ and -0.3 fWAR in 207 plate appearances. The 30-year-old has made that rough performance a distant memory now, though.

He’s appeared in 121 games all around the diamond and accumulated 426 plate appearances in the process. That’s much more playing time than the front office was anticipating, but he’s been a crucial part of this offense, especially when it struggled with consistency through the first five months.

A hot start to September had been punctuated by a stretch against the Washington Nationals in D.C. when nobody could get him out:

Entering Friday’s Subway Series opener, Villar is now slashing .262/.337/.457 this season, which includes 18 home runs, 40 RBI, and 56 runs scored, which is all good for a 118 wRC+. Among Mets hitters with at least 400 plate appearances this season, he’s second on the club in homers, wRC+, and fWAR, with some guy named Pete Alonso ahead of him in all three categories.

And sure, a hot start to September has helped Villar, but he’s been hot for a while now. Since August 1, the veteran infielder is slashing .311/.378/.533 with seven homers, 17 RBI, 18 runs scored, and a 149 wRC+ in 136 plate appearances. What’s been happening over the past five weeks compared to the first four months prior?

He Wasn’t An Automatic Out Before

Despite being initially ticketed for a reserve role, Villar filled in for his injured teammates admirably, as can be seen from his numbers between the start of the regular season to the end of July.

He was by no means a top-tier offensive producer, but his 104 wRC+ put him slightly above the league average, which is more than what anyone could’ve asked for given the circumstances he was performing under. Through his first 289 plate appearances of 2021, Villar slashed  .240/.319/.422 with 11 home runs, 23 RBI, and 38 runs scored. Again, that doesn’t exactly set the world on fire, but it was enough to help keep the Mets afloat as they held onto first place in the National League East for three months.

But Not Much Has Changed?

What’s interesting when splitting Villar’s season up into two parts is that there actually doesn’t seem to be much of a change going on with his approach. His walk rate (9.7% through July, 8.8% since August) and strikeout rate (24.6% to 22.8%) are quite similar, and that’s backed up by looking at some of his plate discipline statistics:

The same thing can be said about his batted-ball profile. In fact, his quality-of-contact numbers have actually gotten worse when comparing these two periods of time.

Even if we break down some of Villar’s Statcast numbers, it’s more of the same story.

We’re obviously comparing two periods with different sample sizes, but it’s weird not seeing significant positive changes in any of the above categories that have led to his .742 OPS and 104 wRC+ through July jumping all the way up to .911 and 149, respectively, since the start of August.

So, What Has Actually Changed?

OK, I was lying a little bit before. There have been some changes — some on a smaller scale and some on a broader scale. The first one is how Villar’s BABIP has progressed between the two time periods we’ve been discussing. Through the end of July, he owned a .290 BABIP, but that number has gone all the way up to .369 since August 1. That ranks among the best in baseball over the past five weeks.

This is more of a return to what he did prior to his disappointing 2020. Villar’s BABIP last year was .313, which is a stark contrast to the five seasons leading up to that (.360, .373, .330, .339, .341). So, he’s always been more of a high BABIP kind of guy. And while his batted-ball profile hasn’t changed much from the first four months of 2021 compared to the last month-plus, it’s a return to what he did during a 4.1-fWAR campaign in 2019 with the Baltimore Orioles.

Check out how his batted-ball profile has progressed between 2019 and 2021:

And, if we look at some of his Statcast numbers over the same period of time, we can see a similar dip in the middle going on:

So, it seems like Villar’s current hot streak wasn’t necessarily brought about by something he did differently from the season’s first four months. It’s more about staying consistent with his approach and getting a little help from the Baseball Gods after experiencing some more bad luck than usual through the first portion of this year.

For the Mets’ sake, let’s hope this hot streak lasts a few more weeks through Game 162 because they’ll need all the help they can get now.