Unlike the last few seasons, the New York Mets enjoyed a very productive offseason this past winter and are now aiming to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2016, however, they’ll certainly need improved performances from their bullpen to accomplish that feat this season.

While the Mets’ bullpen took steps in the right direction last season, they were still considered one of the worst-performing units across the major leagues, as they finished tied for the fifth-most losses (12) and also produced the eighth-lowest fWAR rating (0.6) among all 30 teams, according to FanGraphs.com.

In an effort to prevent these issues from occurring in 2021, the front office acquired relievers Trevor May and Aaron Loup in free agency, which will hopefully strengthen the club’s pitching staff. But with Seth Lugo sidelined until at least May due to his elbow surgery, it’ll be crucial for someone to step up and help fill the void during high-leverage situations.

Even when Lugo returns, this team can’t afford to have history repeat its self by having several relievers not playing up to their expectations, meaning the onus will be on everyone to perform effectively all season long. In particular, it’ll be extremely important for veteran Jeurys Familia to bounce back following consecutive disappointing seasons, especially since he’s eligible to become a free agent next offseason.

Despite arriving to camp in much better shape last spring, as Familia dropped 30 pounds after the 2019 campaign, the 31-year-old still struggled to replicate the success he enjoyed earlier in his career and also became a liability at times during late-game situations. While the 6-foot-3 hurler lowered his ERA from 5.70 in 2019 to 3.71 in 2020, his ability to generate swings and misses took another major step backward and he also couldn’t limit the number of free passes surrendered during his ninth season in Queens.

Over his 25 appearances last season, the right-hander compiled 26 2/3 innings, producing a 4.49 xERA, 4.92 FIP, 5.32 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, 19.2% strikeout rate, 27.5% whiff rate, 26.6% chase rate, 15.8% walk rate and a -0.1 fWAR mark.

In comparison, the veteran hurler logged 60.0 innings in 2019, creating a 4.83 xERA, 4.88 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, 23.0% strikeout rate, 28.2% whiff rate, 27.2% chase rate, 15.3% walk rate and -0.2 fWAR.

Though Familia induced a 60.0% GB rate, which was the seventh-highest rate among all qualified relievers last season, along with a measly .204 AVG and a .247 BABIP, his inability to control the strike zone is something that he’ll need to correct in 2021. If the former Oakland Athletic fails to achieve this goal, then he may be forced to take on a less meaningful role and could struggle to earn another lucrative contract next winter.

So how can Familia significantly improve his command this season?

Well, it won’t be easy, but the Dominican native could dramatically reduce his walk rate while increasing his strikeout rate at the same time if he can control his four-seamer more effectively. While he’s been able to maintain its high-90s velocity despite crossing over the age-30 threshold, which is extremely impressive, his fastball has been overly wild at times as it’s generated the highest walk rate among all of his pitches since 2019.

Since Familia’s fastball features plenty of horizontal movement, resulting in an average of at least 10.0 inches of break in each of the last four seasons, it’s historically been an extremely difficult pitch to command and has proven to be very unpredictable. With that in mind, the veteran righty’s accuracy struggles reached a new high last season, which is extremely concerning given that his four-seamer didn’t endure a major increase in its side-to-side movements.

Unlike prior seasons, the 2016 NL All-Star was seen locating his heater low and away to right-handed hitters, low and inside to left-handed batters, rather than in the upper half of the strike zone. Considering he missed his spots on numerous occasions, this issue prevented him from utilizing it as a reliable swing and miss weapon throughout the shortened season.

Here’s where Familia located his fastball during the 2020 campaign:

And here’s where Familia located his fastball from 2016-2018:

As a result of Familia’s inconsistent command, opposing hitters were able to layoff his four-seamer when it was located in the bottom half of the strike zone, particularly on the edge of the zone. With those batters more inclined to wait for his heater to be positioned in a hittable location, they were able to create a lot more contact against it, especially when it finished inside the zone.

In total, the Liceo Ana Lilian Miranda standout’s fastball produced just a 17.4% whiff rate, 10.0% in zone whiff rate and an 8.8% chase rate in 2020. In addition, his heater also generated a troubling 57.1% FB rate and a 28.6% GB rate, which was the lowest rate among all of his pitches.

If Familia can revert back to the consistency he featured between 2016-2018, then his chances of bouncing back from his poor 2020 showing will likely be pretty high, potentially allowing him to enjoy one of the best performances of his career. While it’ll also be extremely important for him to stay healthy – he missed some time in 2019 due to a bone spur in his shoulder and largely stayed healthy last season – improving the command of his fastball should be one of the righty’s main concerns throughout this season.

Since the Mets are counting on their bullpen to become more reliable in 2021, an improved performance from the former international free agent could definitely help them transition into one of the more dominant groups in the majors, especially when Lugo returns to action. Taking this a step further, it’s possible the front office would be open to offering him an extension once the regular season concludes if he showcases signs of progression.

With less than three weeks until Opening Day, one of the most pivotal seasons of Familia’s career is set to begin very shortly and it’ll be very interesting to see if he’s able to apply any of these adjustments to his fastball during his 10th season in New York.

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