Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Last month I wrote a column discussing the Javier Baez trade in relation to the 2015 Yoenis Cespedes one.

In it, I argued that both players were intended to provide the same impact but results won’t be there due to Baez’s personal struggles this season as well as the Mets team struggles. Turns out I was half-wrong and Baez, like Cespedes, has turned into the Mets best player.

In fact, their numbers are more similar than different.

In 32 games with the Mets, Baez is batting .304/.375/.600 for a .975 OPS and 162 WRC+.

In Cespedes’ first 32 games as a Met, he batted .295/.347/.619 for a .965 OPS and a 163 WRC+.

The impact has been statistically the same but the outcomes not as much. With Baez playing the Mets are 14-18, with Cespedes the Mets were 22-10 across those first 32 games.

So when we look back on the 2021 trade deadline, it wasn’t the individual player that let fans down it was the rest of the team.

When I wrote the original article on August 11, the Mets were just two games back of a division title. Since they’ve dropped 3.5 games more in the division and have failed to take advantage of a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals and gain ground in the Wild Card race.

The Mets playoff chances slip away more and more with each passing game. And it’s likely we’re already looking at positive signs for next year. That includes Francisco Lindor and Michael Conforto playing up to their career averages, Marcus Stroman having the best season of his career, and Baez making as strong a case as anyone to be the Mets number one free agent target.

Here’s what I wrote about Baez’s stats a month ago.

Maybe it’s expected. Baez has a .285 OBP with a league-high 144 strikeouts in 100 games this season. He could still regress back to career averages and gain 20 points in batting average and OBP. Plus he’s never struck out this often before. Until that happens he just slots right into the current Mets lineup.

Today his 2021 season averages are .264/.316/.514 with a .831 OPS. His career averages are .264/.306/.479 with a .785 OPS. Plus his K-rate has decreased from 36.1% with the Cubs to 28.1% as a Met, which falls slightly above his All-Star seasons in 2018 and 2018. And none of that factors in the defense he provides at second base, a position he hasn’t played since 2018.

Sportrac estimates the 28-year-old Baez to receive a contract this offseason nearing eight years, $178 million for an average of $22 million per year.

The other three premier free agent shortstops on the market are all estimated higher. Carlos Correa at 10 years, $259 million, Corey Seager at nine years, $265 million, and Trevor Story at eight years, $244 million.

As of now, Baez is projected to receive the 11th most average annual salary among free agents this offseason placing him behind current Mets Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard, along with future Hall of Fame members Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw. He’s one spot ahead of Stroman.

Contract talks are where Cespedes and Baez differ. Cespedes eventually agreed to a four-year, $110 million dollar deal after two playoff appearances and a year and a half in New York. The Mets will likely not see any playoff impact and have to base how important he is to the present and future of the Mets off roughly 50 games.

Of course, it helps when your best friend signed the richest contract in franchise history in March.

Baez couldn’t carry this team by himself with nine of the Mets last 10 losses by one run but he’s certainly shown why they need him for years to come.