Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

After struggling to keep runs off the scoreboard throughout last season, it’s clear the New York Mets will need to fill multiple holes within their starting rotation before players begin reporting to spring training in less than two months.

Unlike prior offseasons, the Mets actually own a solid amount of financial flexibility this winter, as their payroll is approximately $60 million under the $210 million luxury tax threshold. Since the club hasn’t experienced any money issues this time around, the only major problem the front office has faced over the last couple of months is locating the right pitcher or two for the right price.

But now, three months into the offseason, the team still hasn’t signed an impact starter up to this point, although the free agent market has barely moved since November. As a result, pitcher Trevor Bauer – who’s considered the top hurler available in this year’s class of free agents – remains on the open market, meaning it’s still possible he could take the mound in Queens next season.

While the Mets think very highly of Bauer, and rightly so, his current asking price appears to be far too high for management to pull the trigger on him, as he’s reportedly seeking a five or six-year deal that’ll pay him $36-$40 million per season.

Unless the 2020 NL Cy Young award winner’s demands come back down to earth, the Mets could be forced to look elsewhere to find a reliable starter. Even if they end up landing the former Cincinnati Red, general manager Jared Porter and his staff will likely continue searching for another hurler who could help solidify their rotation.

If they’re looking for an inexpensive pitcher to fill that role, then Jake Odorizzi could be the perfect candidate for them, as he’s coming off an injury-riddled 2020 campaign and could be poised for a strong bounce-back season in 2021. Though he’d probably slot in behind Marcus Stroman, the 30-year old – who’ll turn 31 in a few months – might prove to be a steal if he’s able to replicate his stellar 2019 performance.

Coming off a respectable 2018 campaign where he posted a 4.49 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and a 2.6 fWAR rating, Odorizzi took his game up to another level during the following season and produced the top statistical performance of his entire career. Despite throwing just shy of 160 innings, the 6-foot-2 hurler still posted career-bests in FIP (3.36), ERA- (75), FIP- (73), xFIP- (95), strikeout rate (27.1%), and fWAR (4.3).

In addition, the former first-round selection also created a 3.89 xERA, 1.21 WHIP, .233 xAVG, .289 wOBA, .304 xwOBA, 8.1% walk rate, 27.9% whiff rate, 20.7% LD rate, 35.0% GB rate, 44.3% FB rate, 6.9% barrel rate, 36.2% hard-hit rate, and a 8.8% HR/FB rate, which was the lowest among all starters who compiled at least 150.0 innings, according to FanGraphs.com.

Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Eligible to become a free agent after enjoying this successful 2019 campaign, Odorizzi decided against reaching the open market, as he accepted his $17.8 million qualifying offer and returned to the Minnesota Twins for another season.

Unfortunately, his plan to renter free agency this offseason and land a long-term deal has backfired on him, especially since he suffered three separate injuries (an intercostal strain, chest contusion, and a blister) last season and struggled mightily after returning from the injured listed.

Limited to just four starts in 2020, the 2019 AL All-Star only compiled 13 2/3 innings, producing an embarrassing 6.59 ERA, 7.27 xERA, 6.12 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, 20.0% strikeout rate, 19.9% whiff rate, 23.8% LD rate, 15.9% barrel rate, 38.6% hard-hit rate, 23.5% HR/FB rate, and a 0.0 fWAR rating.

Digging deeper into his woes from last season, it seems Odorizzi’s trio of injuries directly impacted both his low-80s splitter and cutter in a negative way, which also made his low-90s four-seamer less effective as well. Since he relies heavily on all three of these offerings, it makes plenty of sense as to why he failed to perform effectively during his brief time on the mound last season.

Starting with his cutting fastball, the Highland HS standout generates a ton of side to side movement with it, as he finished tied for the fourth-highest average inches of break (5.7 inches) among all pitchers who threw at least 250 cutters in 2019. But due to his inability to stay healthy, he witnessed its horizontal movements decline significantly as it only averaged 0.6 inches of break in 2020.

As a result of its ineffectiveness, Odorizzi reduced the usage of his cutter by nearly 10% and allowed a .500 AVG, .500 SLG, and a .435 wOBA against it. But considering his cutting fastball also produced a .096 xAVG, .101 xSLG, and a .096 xwOBA, there’s a very strong chance he would’ve been able to improve its overall results over a full season.

For a better understanding of this recent issue, here’s where Odorizzi’s cutter was located in 2019:

And here’s where it was located during the 2020 campaign:

As for Odorizzi’s splitter, it also creates plenty of horizontal movement, as it finished with the sixth-highest average inches of break (11.5 inches) in 2019. Along with its impressive side-to-side movements, the former Tampa Bay Ray also generates a solid amount of spin on his primary offspeed pitch, as it recorded a 71.0% active spin percentage and a 1,489 rpm spin rate during that same season.

Similar to his cutter, the veteran arm’s recent injuries prevented him from replicating his prior success with his splitter last season, resulting in an average of 9.4 inches of break, a 67.0% active spin percentage, along with a 1,223 rpm spin rate.

Based on those unfortunate changes, he allowed a .300 AVG, .364 xAVG, .650 SLG, .727 xSLG, .401 wOBA, .449 xwOBA, 21.1% barrel rate, and a 47.4% hard-hit rate against his splitter.

The good news for Odorizzi?

If he stays healthy throughout the majority of next season and particularly avoids any further blister issues, the talented righty should be able to rely on both his cutter and splitter once again, which should also help improve his four-seamer at the same time. Assuming the 2021 campaign is played over 162 games, which could still change, the Illinois native will likely find a way to erase his disappointing 2020 showing.

From the Mets’ perspective, if they can sign Odorizzi for a reasonable price, perhaps a multi-year deal that’s worth around $10 million per season, it’s possible they could land the steal of the offseason. While it probably won’t be easy to acquire his services, making this move could dramatically improve the club’s rotation in 2021.

Considering pitchers Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Stroman are all slated to become free agents after next season, it’ll be crucial for the front office to add some much-needed stability to their pitching staff this offseason, which is something Odorizzi could certainly help them accomplish moving forward.