Good luck getting runners on base against Jacob deGrom. And even if you get runners on base, prepare to see them get stranded there.
In 2018, hitters hit .179/.238/.265 when others runners were on base. That does not seem sustainable but his expected slash when runners are on base was .194/.248/.280. This essentially says that deGrom was not the beneficiary of luck but rather, he induced weak contact and got big strikeouts.
Yesterday was a primary example of why deGrom is special: he adjusts on the fly. In the third inning, deGrom had a first and third, no-out jam. His go to pitch against righties is his slider but yesterday, it was not working for Jake.
He fell in the count to Trea Turner because of two lazy sliders out of the zone. Instead of trying to fix the slider, deGrom went with his fastball and changeup combination to get himself out of the inning. He struck out Turner with his fastball up in the zone. He then proceeded to induced weak contact from Anthony Rendon with his changeup.
All the pitches he threw to Turner were up in the zone but the velocity combined with the movement made it impossible to hit but also difficult to lay off.
He faced a similar problem in the sixth inning when his slider was not fooling anyone. So he went back to his changeup to get some more soft contact from Rendon and struck out Juan Soto, the two best hitters on the Nationals. The Nats would go 1-for-7 against deGrom with runners in scoring position.
All told, deGrom threw his changeup 13 times in the game with five swings and misses. For contrast, he threw his slider 26 times with just two swings and misses. When he gets in a jam, expect him to figure out something to get out of it, one way or the other.
Jacob deGrom’s release points from Opening Day.
That tight cluster certainly makes the hitter’s job of recognizing pitches tough. #Mets #LGM @mets pic.twitter.com/5sOWbo6ieN
— Mathew Brownstein (@MBrownstein89) March 29, 2019
His release points are remarkably consistent with every pitch. That makes it even tougher for a hitter to know what is coming next. In the Rendon at-bat during the third inning, he went with fastball in followed by a changeup. There is absolutely no way to detect his pitches and with the velocity deGrom has, it’s virtually impossible to hit.
Seth Lugo was also sensational in his one inning of work. He struck out the side thanks to Dave Martinez but the Nationals also looked overmatched. He was getting some serious movement on all of his pitches especially his fastball. His curveball is what is usually known for it’s spin but his fastball clocked in at 94-96, and got three swings in misses out of the eight he threw. I would not be shocked if he ends up being the Mets second best reliever.
Speaking of Mets relievers, Edwin Diaz looks like the guy who the paid a premium for. His fastball sat at 97-98 and it looked overpowering on a few occasions.
