Jacob Barnes Could Become Quality Reliever Next Season

While free agency is only a few days old, the New York Mets have already started making additions to their roster for next season, which included adding two veteran hurlers who’ll each be provided an opportunity to earn a spot within the team’s bullpen when training camp opens next spring.

Making a pair of waiver claims, the front office acquired pitchers Nick Tropeano and Jacob Barnes off the waiver wire and are hopeful they’ll be able to help strengthen the club’s depth regarding its reliever corps. Considering neither of them are eligible for arbitration this winter, both of these transactions should be deemed as low-risk and high-reward situations heading into the 2021 campaign.

With Barnes in particular, the 30-year old has bounced around from three different organizations (Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals, and the Los Angeles Angels) over the last two seasons and hasn’t been able to perform consistently at the major league level just yet.

That being said, it seems the right-hander might be just a few adjustments away from finally reaching his full potential and it’s possible he could accomplish that feat in Queens.

Despite struggling to find a home over the last few campaigns, the former 14th-round selection has shown flashes of his ceiling over his five seasons in the major leagues. He just hasn’t been able to put everything together at the highest level of competition.

Though this has been an extremely frustrating process, the 6-foot-2 hurler actually found a way to enjoy a considerable amount of success this past season, which is extremely impressive considering the Angels have failed to develop pitchers over the last decade or so.

Over his 18 appearances in 2020, Barnes compiled 18.0 innings of work, producing a 5.50 ERA, 4.27 xERA, 2.25 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, 127 ERA-, 50 FIP-, 73 xFIP-, 1.28 WHIP, .264 OPP AVG, .383 BABIP (tied for 18th-highest among all relievers who pitched at least 10.0 innings), 30.8% strikeout rate, 30.2% chase rate, 34.2% whiff rate, 5.1% walk rate, 39.6% LD rate, 41.7% GB rate, 12.5% FB rate, 47.9% hard-hit rate (15th-highest), 6.3% barrel rate, 6.3% HR/FB rate, and a 0.4 fWAR rating, according to FanGraphs.com.

In comparison, the veteran hurler earned 33 appearances (18 with Brewers and 15 with Royals) in 2019 and completed 32 2/3 innings, recording a troubling 7.44 ERA (career-worst), 5.40 xERA, 6.06 FIP, 5.22 xFIP, 163 ERA-, 135 FIP-, 116 xFIP-, 1.78 WHIP, .261 OPP AVG, .293 BABIP, 20.0% strikeout rate, 24.0% chase rate, 23.4% whiff rate, 13.8% walk rate, 27.4% LD rate, 48.1% GB rate, 19.8% FB rate, 37.7% hard-hit rate, 7.5% barrel rate, 21.9% HR/FB rate, along with a -0.5 fWAR rating.

Based on this impressive year-to-year progression, it’s clear something clicked for Barnes during his brief tenure on the west coast and it’s possible the Mets could help him continue to build off his encouraging performance next summer.

Now paired with pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, the former pitcher – who spent two seasons in blue pinstripes – must help the aging hurler continue developing his mid-90s fastball and high-80s cutter, as they each have the potential of becoming plus-offerings.

Starting with his four-seamer, the Florida Gulf Coast University product was able to increase the average velocity on his fastball by 1.6 mph (95.2 mph) and utilized it 46.6% of the time in 2020. In addition, he also significantly improved its vertical movements, reducing its average inches of drop by 3.1 inches, which allowed it to finish tied with the 13th-fewest average inches of drop (11.8) among all pitchers who threw at least 100 fastballs, according to BaseballSavant.com.

Thanks to these adjustments, Barnes was able to generate plenty of more swings and misses with his fastball, resulting in a 25.8% strikeout rate (8.9% increase from 2019), 22.0% whiff rate (10.5% increase), 23.3% in zone whiff rate (11.3% increase), 14.3% chase whiff rate (4.3% increase), and a 12.9% walk rate (5.4% decrease).

Despite surrendering a 47.1% hard-hit rate and a 21 degree average launch angle, his heater allowed just a .174 AVG (.124 decrease from 2019), .187 xAVG (.138 decrease), .217 SLG (.344 decrease), .302 xSLG (.274 decrease), .259 wOBA (.150 decrease), and a .299 xwOBA (.130 decrease).

As for his cutter, it’s arguably Barnes’ most polished weapon and he was able to take it to another level this past season, as it proved to be extremely effective during two-strike counts and didn’t allow a single walk against it.

Taking this a step further, it averaged 4.6 inches of break (11th-most among all qualified pitchers), which forced hitters to extend the strike zone on several occasions and helped him limit the damage it surrendered.

Over his shortened 2020 campaign, the Florida native threw his cutting fastball 52.4% of the time, creating a 34.8% strikeout rate (12.1% increase from 2019), 41.5% whiff rate (10.2% increase), 23.5% in zone whiff rate (8.0% increase), 44.3% chase rate (15.8% increase), 62.8% chase whiff rate (7.2% increase), 56.3% chase rate with two strikes (14.1% increase), and a 80.0% GB rate with two strikes (36.5% increase).

Though his cutter allowed a ton of hard contact (46.7%) and surrendered a career-worst 10.0% barrel rate, there’s a chance Barnes could be able to improve both of those metrics in 2021 while also maintaining his stellar strikeout ability. Additionally, his fastball will also need to undergo the same adjustment to avoid allowing so many hard-hit balls during his inaugural campaign with the Mets.

Here’s a chart of where Barnes’ four-seamer and cutting fastball were located this past season:

Since the majority of Barnes’ pitches finished in the middle part of the zone, it’s clear he’ll need to correct this issue with both his fastball and cutter next season and must be able to locate those offerings on the outer sections of the plate more effectively as well. If successful, this adjustment would still allow him to generate plenty of strikeouts and he wouldn’t surrender nearly as much hard contact.

Along with needing to improve his command, the hard-throwing righty must also be utilized in the right scenarios, which hasn’t always happened throughout his major league career.

Despite dominating against left-handed batters in 2020, only 26 of the total 78 batters the former Angel faced were lefties and he was matched up against one or fewer in eight of his first 10 appearances.

Over his 7 1/3 innings against left-handed hitters, Barnes produced a 0.33 FIP, 1.38 xFIP, 0.68 WHIP, .167 OPP AVG, .308 BABIP, 46.2% strikeout rate, 3.8% walk rate, 15.4% LD rate, 53.8% GB rate, and a 30.8% FB rate.

But because he located so many pitches in the middle of the zone, hitters were able to induce a 4.91 ERA and a 53.8% hard-hit rate. Still, that doesn’t take away from his impressive showing against lefties during this past season.

With the Mets looking to add reinforcements to their bullpen, it seems Barnes could start in low-leverage situations and potentially advance into medium or even high-leverage spots if he performs consistently as the season moves along. Since he was primarily utilized during the eighth inning in 2020, though his team was usually trailing during his outings, his experience in that role could help him earn a similar spot when next season rolls around.

There’s no guarantee Barnes will be able to transform into a quality reliever in 2021, but if he were to make this type of progress, it would speak volumes about New York’s coaching staff.