Through his first month in the orange and blue, J.D. Davis put together solid offensive numbers in limited playing time. Since then, though? His performance hasn’t been nearly as productive.
Davis accumulated 74 plate appearances in March/April for the Mets and slashed an impressive .302/.405/.508 with three home runs, eight RBI, and 12 runs scored. This was also accompanied by a 14.9% walk rate and 16.2% strikeout rate. Overall, his performance led to a 149 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR for New York. If we look at Mets position players with at least 70 plate appearances through the end of April, only Jeff McNeil and Pete Alonso had a higher wRC+, while just McNeil, Alonso, and Michael Conforto had a higher fWAR.
Once the calendar flipped to May, though, Davis’ production has done a complete about-face in a similar sample size. While he’s still managed three homers and nine RBI over his most recent 85 plate appearances, it’s been accompanied by a .222/.259/.308 line, along with a 4.7% walk rate, 24.7% strikeout rate, 66 wRC+, and -0.2 fWAR.
What was looking to be a significant step forward in his first season of significant playing time in the big leagues is looking pretty average at the moment (although there’s plenty of time to change things). So what exactly is going on here?
A concern with Davis based off his early-career numbers has been the frequency in which he hits ground balls. This has gotten worse as the season’s progressed, but it’s not like his March/April ground-ball rate was super low. What’s interesting is seeing his rise in hard-hit rate during this time despite the lack of results.
| 2019 | LD% | GB% | FB% | Soft% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through April 30th | 25.5% | 49.0% | 25.5% | 9.8% | 33.3% |
| Since May 1st | 21.7% | 53.3% | 25.0% | 10.0% | 46.7% |
Could there be some bad luck going on here? Possibly, especially upon seeing his BABIP go from .333 in March/April to .263 since May 1st. Or maybe that’s just the norm with his kind of batted-ball profile — in limited playing time, Davis posted a .256 BABIP in 2017 and a .233 BABIP in 2018 for the Houston Astros.
One thing that really jumps out between these two periods of time is his change of plate-discipline statistics. Here’s a quick look at how his chase rate (O-Swing%), swing rate on strikes (Z-Swing%), and the corresponding contact rates have shifted from one month to the next.
| 2019 | O-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through April 30th | 20.0% | 67.7% | 68.2% | 81.5% |
| Since May 1st | 29.4% | 61.1% | 83.9% | 75.8% |
Although the quality of the contact has gone up, the frequency of contact has gone down, which has coincided with more ground balls and fewer line drives. From an overall standpoint, Davis’ swing rate has increased more than 10 percentage points while his swinging-strike rate has increased six percentage points, explaining the rise in strikeouts.
It’s helpful that he’s been so aggressive within the strike zone, but it clearly hasn’t led to the results he was hoping for. Pairing that with a large increase in chase rate isn’t helping, either. Immediately stepping into the box and getting behind in the count also probably doesn’t help.
Through the end of April, opposing pitchers threw a first-pitch strike at a 55.4% rate. Since May 1st, though, that number has gone all the way up to 70.6%. Typically, one would think that an increase in swinging at strikes and an increase in hard-hit rate would be part of a recipe for success. But not when it comes with everything else that Davis has done over the last month or so of play.
Roster depth on the position player side of the house was a huge focus for general manager Brodie Van Wagenen in his first winter running the club. We’ve seen a number of those signings — Adeiny Hechavarria, Rajai Davis, and Carlos Gomez in particular — come through in key moments. Davis is going to be a more consistently present depth piece for New York this season, so it’ll be crucial for him to get his plate discipline under control so his production can return to those March/April levels.
