J.D. Davis Finding His Swing During Pivotal Time For Mets

It’s no secret the New York Mets explored potential upgrades at the third base position over the offseason, but once those efforts proved to be ineffective, they pivoted back to infielder J.D. Davis and were hopeful he could improve off his disappointing 2020 campaign.

Coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder, Davis was determined to put those trade rumors behind him and was aiming to prove his doubters wrong – something most experts didn’t believe was attainable. Though the 28-year-old’s defense remains a huge question mark, as he’s posted a -2 OAA over 242 2/3 innings at the hot corner this season, he made up for those woes with his offense through the first month of the schedule.

Wasting no time out of the gate, the 6’3″ third baseman enjoyed a very productive start to the regular season, and while his offensive production didn’t completely outweigh his shortcomings in the field, they allowed him to remain a positive contributor during this opening stretch.

Serving as one of the top hitters in the Mets’ lineup from Apr. 5 to May 1, Davis performed as a reliable run producer, as he recorded three doubles, two home runs, seven RBIs, a .220 ISO, a .583 BABIP, a .462 wOBA, a 195 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .390/.479/.610/1.089 over his first 48 plate appearances in 2021.

Despite being on this incredible run, unfortunately, the right-hander’s season hit a major snag in early May when he suffered a significant sprain in his left hand, forcing the team to place him on the injured list. Initially, the training staff didn’t expect him to miss more than a few weeks or so, but due to multiple setbacks, the power-slugging infielder was ultimately sidelined through the rest of the first half.

With Davis out of commission, New York’s offense sorely missed his presence within the middle of the batting order, which was one of the key reasons this club struggled scoring runs heading into the Mid-Summer Classic. Luckily, the former third-round pick was ready to return from the IL after the all-star break and was looking to pick up exactly where he left off earlier in the campaign.

Making a strong impact shortly after his activation, the former Houston Astro was eased back into action at first as he was limited to pinch-hitting duties, although he put on a remarkable show during his first game back at third base. Carrying this team’s lineup in a losing effort, the offensive-first righty clubbed a pair of home runs, driving in four runs on Jul. 17 against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

While receiving this type of showing from Davis was an encouraging sign, it didn’t prove to be sustainable and saw him endure a very tough stretch at the plate through the remainder of July, causing him to become an unreliable run producer and a major liability.

Unable to break out of his hitting slump, the California State product struggled mightily following his multi-home run performance, resulting in just two extra-base hits, a .054 ISO, a .273 BABIP, a .226 wOBA, a 43 wRC+ score and a miserable slashing line of .162/.262/.216/.478 over his 42 plate appearances from Jul. 18-31.

Adding to his frustration, Davis witnessed a dramatic increase in strikeouts after coming off the IL, causing his strikeout rate to jump from 31.3% through the first month of the season to 35.7% in July. Making matters worse, his ability to create hard contact also dropped off significantly during that same span, as his hard-hit rate decreased by 31.8% (50.0% – 18.2%) and his average exit velocity lowered by 8.9 mph (92.9 – 84.0).

Pleased to turn the calendar to August, the California native has recently displayed some encouraging signs of potentially being on the verge of surpassing this disappointing stretch, which would certainly be a welcomed occurrence. Granted, he’s only compiled 31 plate appearances this month but has been producing similar results dating back to before his unfortunate injury.

Seemingly breaking out of his offensive funk, Davis has been thriving in the batter’s box since Aug. 2, allowing him to generate four doubles, three RBIs, a .167 ISO, a .500 BABIP, a .431 wOBA, a 175 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .333/.484/.500/.984.

One of the biggest causes for this recent turnaround has been the former top prospect’s improved plate discipline, as he’s nearly been able to register more walks than strikeouts lately. In total, he’s earned seven walks and has only struck out eight times since the start of August, resulting in a 22.6% walk rate and a 25.8% strikeout rate.

Along with becoming less susceptible to strikeouts, Davis has also rediscovered his ability to produce high amounts of hard contact, allowing him to record a 50.0% hard-hit rate and an 86.5 mph average exit velocity over 16 batted-ball events.

Putting these impressive metrics into perspective, the Elk Grove HS product has served as one of the top offensive producers on the Mets’ roster, as he’s generated the highest fWAR rating (0.4), wRC+ score, AVG, OBP, BABIP and wOBA, is tied for the second-highest SLG and owns the fourth-highest ISO among all hitters who’ve earned at least 20 plate appearances this month, according to FanGraphs.com.

Since this team is currently in a tight playoff race within the National League East Division, receiving improved results from Davis couldn’t be coming at a better time, especially since they’re taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants several times over these next two weeks.

Paired with some positive results from teammate Michael Conforto, who’s also started to heat up recently, this offense might finally be heading in the right direction during the most crucial time of the season. While injuries to key players remain a huge concern, as shortstop Francisco Lindor likely won’t return until September and Javier Baez continues to deal with lower-back discomfort, other players are beginning to step up when it matters most.

With Davis in particular, second baseman Jeff McNeil or Baez will eventually need to move over to third base once Lindor returns to action, meaning locating consistent playing time for the former outfielder could become extremely difficult down the stretch.

Having said that, if he continues to make a difference with his offense, manager Luis Rojas will likely have no other choice but to find a way to keep the right-hander’s bat in the lineup on a regular basis – that’s a pretty good problem to have for any coaching staff.