It happens every February… No not Groundhog Day, I’m talking about Truck Day at Citi Field! For me it represents the unofficial start of a new Mets season and all the promise, the hope, and the optimism that comes along with it. This is a time to set aside any remaining residue of offseason disappointment and looking at all the positives the Mets have going for them in 2018.
Of course, this strange offseason still rages on with most of this year’s top free agents still unsigned with roughly a week to go before pitchers and catchers report. I was heartened by something Jim Duquette floated yesterday about the Mets shifting gears again and refocusing their efforts to acquire an innings eater for the middle of the rotation.
I’ve gotta tell ya, that’s music to my ears. I know the Mets have taken a lot of heat for their offseason thus far, but I honestly have no problem with the Adrian Gonzalez signing or bringing Jose Reyes back. Two low cost moves that could pay big dividends in 2018. I thought the Mets did well in re-signing Jay Bruce, and the more I learn about right-handed reliever Anthony Swarzak, the more I like him.
My one and only gripe this offseason has been the failure to bring in a quality arm to bolster what was one of the worst performing rotations in the game last season, ranking 27th with a 5.19 ERA, 26th with a .802 OPS, and 28th with a 1.46 WHIP. After rolling the dice last season that 80 percent of our rotation would bounce back from various arm woes and then watching them all crash and burn, are we seriously going to plot that same exact strategy again this season? Come on, seriously?
It’s imperative that we bring in a reliable quality arm to go with Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in that once vaunted dream rotation. A veteran guy who can throw strikes and give the team 30-32 quality starts. In my opinion, adding such a starter should be a bigger priority than scouring around for yet another second or third baseman. Adding a No. 3 type starter should have been this Winter’s top priority all along… Period.
I have to somewhat disagree with Sandy Alderson who said yesterday, “I think we’ve got quite a bit of depth. We had similar depth last year and we zipped right through it. The key to our season is going to be our pitching — both our starting pitching and our bullpen. So it’s important for us to have the depth, but it’s also important for us to have better health among our frontline guys.”
My problem with that is I’m not as sold on our starting pitching depth as Sandy is. And while he thinks the addition of Mickey Callaway will be the difference maker this time around, I say the addition of a Lance Lynn or an Alex Cobb will be a real and tangible difference maker not a theoretical one. This pipe dream that Callaway is going to wave his magic wand and Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz will all bounce back and return to form this season is a great fantasy. But that’s all it is… fantasy.
As it stands right now, the Mets will enter the 2018 season with a starting rotation comprised of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz – all but one of them coming back from some very serious injuries in 2017.
Should any of them falter again as they did last year, the Mets will once again turn to Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Rafael Montero, and Chris Flexen. And we all know how that turned out last season.
Imagine if you will what a huge impact the addition of Lynn will have on our rotation and our playoff chances.
The addition of Lynn instantly makes our 1-2-3 among the most formidable in the National League. But more importantly, now we would only need two of Harvey, Matz and Wheeler to bounce-back instead of all three of them. It gives the Mets some much needed wiggle room if the worst was to happen again in 2018.
Wheeler could then pitch out of the pen in a long relief role while also making 10-12 spot starts to keep everyone fresh while easing the innings overload that seems to land him on the DL at every turn.
Adding a quality innings eater like Lynn reduces the level of uncertainty that currently surrounds the team, and imagine the confidence boost it gives everyone in that clubhouse? He would also put the pressure on everyone else to perform and it sends a strong signal that the new Mets manager mean it when he said, “every player will be held accountable.”
Early projections had Lynn looking at a four-year deal in the $70 million range. But I happen to agree with John Harper who sees him ultimately getting a three-year deal at around $40 to $50 million. That would be a great investment for the Mets and protects them if Matt Harvey was to move on after the season.
After missing the entirety of 2016 because of Tommy John surgery, Lynn returned last season to toss 186.1 innings, compiling an 11-8 record with a 3.43 ERA. Since 2012, Lynn has averaged 32 starts per season, something the Mets could desperately use right now.
Look, Lynn isn’t the only fish in the sea and I’d be just as thrilled if the Mets turned to Alex Cobb or Jason Vargas instead. I just want them to recognize the fact that if they are serious about challenging the Washington Nationals in 2018, we need to punctuate our offseason with a veteran starter to bolster the rotation and truly give the team the depth Sandy Alderson was lauding on Thursday at Citi Field.
Hey, it’s Friday…. Have a great weekend
