You guys, it’s (kinda) happening — New York Mets southpaw Jason Vargas is looking like a major-league pitcher. It only took about five months to happen, but better late than never, right?
Vargas was brought into the fold at the start of Spring Training to be that stabilizing veteran hurler a somewhat younger rotation needs. His most redeeming quality has been racking up innings. Outside of tossing just 55 frames from 2015-16 due to Tommy John surgery, the lefty had registered at least 150 innings each year since 2010.
That streak is going to come crashing to an end in about a month, as he’s approaching the month of September with only 64.2 innings due to multiple disabled-list stints and generally terrible pitching.
Things are starting to look up a little bit, though. August looks to be his first month of 2018 with an ERA below 5.00, and his last three starts in particular haven’t resembled the 12 that came before them.
This Doesn’t Look Like The Other
Just about everyone here knows exactly how bad Vargas has been for the Mets for most of this season. Even with his recent string of productive starts, it’s hard to see in his overall numbers. With that mind, here are some pertinent stats from the veteran’s 2018 season, isolating his last three starts.
| 2018 | IP | ERA | SIERA | K% | BB% | HR/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through 8/7 | 47.1 | 8.75 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 2.28 |
| Since 8/14 | 17.1 | 2.08 | 4.09 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 1.04 |
Vargas’ competition hasn’t exactly been as daunting as it could’ve been during this current stretch of good fortune. The Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies aren’t exactly ripping the cover off the ball when compared to the rest of the league, and although the Washington Nationals are markedly better on offense compared to these two, they’ve obviously underperformed quite a bit.
But hey, progress is progress.
The Very Obvious Improvements
A quick scan of Vargas’ game log tells you just about all you need to know when it comes to his rough season. Through August 7 (12 starts), he never completed more than five innings. In fact, he only reached five innings on five different occasions.
He’s done that in each of his last three starts. The southpaw has even *gasp* pitched into the sixth inning every time, completing six frames twice. Based of his style of pitching and quality of stuff, it’ll probably be rare to watch him go much longer than that on a regular basis, but the Mets will definitely take this — especially considering what the alternative has been.
As we can see in the above table, Vargas has also curtailed the massive number of homers he had been allowing.
His hard-hit rate between these two time periods has basically remained the same (36.7% through August 7, 35.3% since August 14), but there have been substantial changes in the rest of his batted-ball profile.
The sample sizes are very different, but it’s still worth noting the progression in his line-drive rate (LD%), ground-ball rate (GB%), and fly-ball rate (FB%).
| 2018 | IP | LD% | GB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through 8/7 | 47.1 | 24.2% | 34.4% | 41.4% |
| Since 8/14 | 17.1 | 18.4% | 49.0% | 32.7% |
That drop in fly-ball rate has also been aided by a spike in infield-fly rate (7.7% through August 7, 18.8% since August 14).
There are a couple reasons for this shift. One is that he’s not living up in the strike zone nearly as much. The following graph shows how the vertical location of his pitches have changed throughout the year, courtesy of Brooks Baseball.
Down in the zone is the best place to live when your average fastball velocity (86.7 mph) is the third lowest among starters with 60-plus innings this season.
Another reason for these improvements is an increase in changeup usage. After throwing it at a 28.6% clip during his struggles, he’s upped it to 33.5% over the last three starts and has depended on his curveball less often.
Finally Getting On Track?
Outside of his poor performances on the mound, let’s not forget that Vargas also hasn’t had the luxury of consistency as much as any pitcher would probably want. He hasn’t started more than four straight games on regular rest all year, and of course missed some time in April because of a non-displaced fracture in his non-throwing hand.
There’s no reason to get ahead of ourselves, though, because it’s only been three starts. Heck, just a couple weeks ago, I would’ve been perfectly happy if New York just let him loose. Was that a bit of an overreaction? Yea, probably, but I was also tired of watching the Mets run out a guy with an ERA approaching 9.00.
Finally getting into a groove was obviously important for Vargas, and the next month will be meaningful to him so he can not only salvage what’s basically been a lost season, but also have some confidence heading into 2019. After all, he’s expected to be part of the rotation mix next year, so it’d be nice to see him go on a sustained run of productive outings so there’s some proof he can still do it.
His last three appearances have been a good start. Now he just has to keep it up.
