After narrowly missing the playoffs in 2019, the New York Mets have a very pivotal offseason ahead of them. They have a young core of talented players ready to win right now, which includes the presumptive Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award winners.
Still, there are plenty of deficiencies on the roster that need to be addressed, namely the bullpen, the defense and the lack of a clear fifth starter. With all these holes needing to be filled, GM Brodie Van Wagenen was asked about financial flexibility when he was speaking to the media during Carlos Beltran‘s introductory press conference on Monday.
In one breath, Van Wagenen spoke about being able to spend in free agency for any player that fits a specific need. Yet in another, he mentioned the word “creativity” in describing how the Mets will address their needs this offseason.
Last offseason, “creativity” meant trading two of the Mets top prospects in exchange for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano. What made this deal “creative” was the inclusion of Anthony Swarzak and Jay Bruce and their $21 million in combined salary going back to Seattle. By shedding those salaries, along with the Mariners eating a portion of Cano’s contract, the Mets actually saved a little bit of money towards their 2019 payroll.
Now looking ahead to this offseason, the Mets are right up against the luxury tax and are going to have to be “creative” to add to the roster without breaking the threshold. This is how trading Michael Conforto may all of sudden become appealing to Van Wagenen.
Conforto, 26, is entering his second season of arbitration and is due for a nice bump in salary after a 3.5 bWAR season. Spotrac estimates that Conforto will earn $9.2 million through arbitration, making him the ninth-highest paid player on the roster. The players who will make more than Conforto are very unlikely to be moved for various reasons.
Jacob deGrom ($27.5 million), Marcus Stroman ($11.8 million) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.9 million) are all projected to make more than Conforto, but are integral to the starting rotation and will likely stay put.
Yoenis Cespedes ($29.5 million), Robinson Cano ($20.5 million), Jeurys Familia ($10 million), Jed Lowrie ($10 million) and Wilson Ramos ($9.5 million) all come with their own age, injury or performance concerns that make their contract nearly immovable.
This brings up back to Conforto, who is the one player making a significant amount of money that has real trade value on the market. The Mets also have a glut of potential corner outfielders that can assume Conforto’s starts, albeit not to the same level of success.
Conforto is coming off of a career-year, which saw him hit .257/.363/.494, with 33 home runs and 92 RBI. He has eclipsed 150 games in each of the last two seasons, showing his durability and has played all three outfield positions. Conforto has also proven to be an above-average right fielder, as he was worth 1 DRS in over 1,000 innings played in right this past season.
With two years left of team control, Conforto is a player that would be attractive to almost any team in baseball that was trying to win now. He is a plug-and-play starting corner outfielder that can hit in the middle of your lineup with an All-Star ceiling. The Mets would be able to receive a nice haul for his services, all while freeing up money to spend and address their roster further.
Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis have been the two names mentioned most frequently in trade rumors heading into the offseason, as neither has a true position, but both have proven to be above-average major league hitters.
Many have felt that without a stable of prospects to trade from, Smith and Davis could be the Mets’ top trade pieces used to address the roster. This could still be the case, but unlike Conforto, Smith, and Davis are still pre-arbitration so they are barely counting towards the luxury tax threshold.
Now I am in no way advocating for the Mets to trade Conforto, but I am instead exploring that possibility based on how Van Wagenen operated last year. Any trade could be worthwhile if you make the right one, but I would rather not see the Mets’ most reliable position player of the last two years moved.
New York’s chances to win next season are much greater with Conforto playing right field every day and the other holes in the roster being filled through free agency.
Hopefully, Van Wagenen can “creatively” find a way to get the Wilpons to sign off on exceeding the luxury tax threshold for one season, truly going all-in in 2020. Otherwise, Conforto could be an unfortunate causality towards achieving Van Wagenen’s goals this offseason.
