Tonight, the Mets will square off against one of the game’s best in Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw. And as of now, there is much reason to believe that the southpaw is the best pitcher on the planet. Since 2013, he’s pitched to a 60-20 record with a pristine 1.87 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning.
This year, Kershaw has continued his dominant ways, jumping out to a 7-1 record with an unworldly 19 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. He even hurled a complete game, three hit shutout against the Mets just two weeks ago. So how do you beat a guy who strikes out a third of all hitters he faces and limits them to an OBP of less than .200? The short anwser is, you don’t. But after looking at some old and new metrics, the Dodgers’ ace seems a little more beatable than he looks on the mound every fifth day.
To beat Clayton Kershaw, the Mets must:
1. Attack early, don’t let him get to his slider/curveball with two strikes
Clayton Kershaw is consistantly around the strike zone, throwing 69 percent of his pitches for strikes. When he’s ahead in the count, he’s absolutely lethal, holding hitters to a .170 batting average against.
Part of what makes Kershaw so tough to hit is how well he repeats his release point. In addition to giving him impeccable control, his ability to repeat his release point makes it difficult for hitters to guess what’s coming. In the charts below, you can see that he throws his fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball from an almost identical position. With the wide range of speed and break he features in his repertoire, it’s clear why facing him -especially behind in the count- is such a challenge.
With the wide range of speed and break he features in his repertoire, it’s clear why facing him -especially behind in the count- is such a challenge.
Kershaw’s curveball and slider are his notorious strikeout pitches. He can spot them effortlessly on the corner or bury them in the dirt at will. Hitters are batting a meager .060 and .104 respectively against them this season. When ahead in the count, Kershaw throws his slider and curveball more than 50 percent of the time, in fact 68 percent of his strikeouts come from these two pitches.
But Kershaw’s accuracy could be beneficial to the Mets. Since he’s around the strike zone so much, Mets hitters can count on seeing one or two pitches per at bat to hit early in the count, before encountering his wipeout breaking stuff. Swinging at strikes early is a key reason that the former Cy Young award winner is giving up hard contact to a surprising 28 percent of hitters who face him. By attacking Kershaw when he’s behind in the count, the Mets can focus on driving pitches in the strike zone while simultaneously limiting their strikeouts.
2. Manufacture runs
To beat Kershaw, the Mets will have to play small ball. The southpaw is allowing just .3 home runs per nine innings this season, a touch below his career mark of .5 HR/9. Furthermore, more than 70 percent of Kershaw’s outs come via the groundball or the strikeout. When he does allow a fly ball, it only leaves the yard 6.3 percent of the time. Against a guy who is exeptional at keeping the ball in the park, perhaps banking on a Yoenis Cespedes moon shot isn’t the best strategy.
Kershaw’s pitching style inherently lends itself to manufacturing runs. Since most of the hits he allows are hard ground ball singles, the Mets are going to be in prime position to take the extra base against him. It’s also worth noting that Joc Pederson‘s average arm in centerfield and Howie Kendrick‘s below average gun in left give the Mets opportunities to run aggressively as well.
Clayton Kershaw is not the kind of player to implode on himself and surrender a big inning. In the vast majority of of his losses over his career, he’s given up one or two runs twice in a game. Teams that can manufacture runs like the Giants (who beat him twice in 2015) are the teams capable of winning against him.
3. Pitch lights out
These keys to beating Kershaw must come with the Mets putting up a steller pitching performance to match him. A guy of his caliber won’t make many mistakes, even on an off night. The Mets will have to pitch tough, as even one bad pitch could lead to a loss.
In 2015, Kershaw allowed five runs once in a loss, four runs twice, and three runs three times. In his other losses, he only gave up a run or two, but was out-pitched by the opposition. For the Mets to come away with a victory, that is what they will have to do tonight.
Of course, against one of the game’s best, it’s all easier said than done.
(Stats courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference)
