How Taijuan Walker Uses Analytics To Be Succesful

Despite the additions of Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco, as well as the eventual return of Noah Syndergaard, the Mets found themselves looking for one more starting pitcher late in the offseason.

After missing out on the top starter on the market, Trevor Bauer, the Mets were forced to pivot and ultimately reached an agreement with right-hander Taijuan Walker this weekend.

The addition of Walker to the mix essentially creates a battle for the last spot in the rotation between Jordan Yamamoto, Joey Lucchesi, and David Peterson.

It’s definitely amazing the Mets have three guys battling for one spot in the starting rotation, especially when you consider just last season all three pitchers would’ve likely seen significant time in the Mets rotation during 2020.

I think the most underrated part of the Mets’ offseason was them increasing their pitching depth. Adding Walker seems like a move that increases the floor, as it likely eliminates the number of innings going to the less proven starters.

The big upgrades in the rotation seem to be adding Carrasco, Stroman, and eventually Syndergaard. With that being said, Walker still has a ton of potential to be more than just a typical number four or five starter.

Walker was a heralded prospect for the Mariners from 2012-2014. Following the 2016 season, the right-hander was shipped off to Arizona along with Ketel Marte in exchange for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger. Walker was the key piece of the deal for Arizona but as history knows it, this became the “Ketel Marte trade” rather than the “Taijuan Walker trade.”

Walker was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2018, and essentially missed the ’18 and ’19 seasons. Arizona moved on from Walker, non-tendering him following the 2019 season. A week after the season, Walker decided to head over to Driveline Baseball, with hopes of revitalizing his career.

For those not familiar with Driveline, they have essentially become a pitching nerd cave, and they arm (no pun intended) pitchers with analytics and data to help maximize their production. Sometimes, this can entail changing grips on their pitches or working on a pitch design.

Walker spoke with David Laurila at FanGraphs about how going to Driveline led to him using more numbers and analytics to increase his production.

For starters, Walker mentioned that he changed the release position, grip, and seam orientation on his cutter to turn it into a slider, ultimately allowing him to get more depth on the pitch. He told Laurila that it wasn’t anything crazy, and he just wanted to add “a little bit of depth and a little bit of cut.”

Another big reason Walker had success in 2020 was his fastball. Walker was able to generate 13.2 inches of movement, which is 1.2 inches above average. This is not a coincidence because as Walker states, he focused on “getting out in front and getting that good extension.”

As for his velocity, Walker believes it is only getting better. He cites more time removed from surgery and regaining some strength as two reasons why his velocity should end up closer to his pre-Tommy John velocity.

During the 2020 season, Walker’s velocity was slightly higher in Toronto than it was in Seattle. He was able to hit 95 MPH or higher on the gun 17 times during the season, and 16 of those pitches occurred while he was with the Blue Jays.

When you expand the statistic, he hit 94 MPH or higher in Seattle just 29 times, but did it 70 times in Toronto. Walker definitely gained velocity as the season went on, and I think he should see a big climb in 2021.

As for the rest of his arsenal, Walker throws a split-change, a curveball, and a two-seamer. The two-seamer is a new weapon that the 28-year old picked up in 2020. According to Walker, he added the pitch so that he can “get in to righties without risking pulling a four-seam over the middle.”

Here are some videos of all of Walker’s pitches:

Fastball

(Courtesy of Baseball Savant)

Split-Change

(Courtesy of Baseball Savant)

Two-Seamer

(Courtesy of Baseball Savant)

Slider

(Courtesy of Baseball Savant)

Curveball

(Courtesy of Baseball Savant)

After reading the interview, it is very clear that Walker has a reason for every pitch in his arsenal and why he throws it a particular way. For example, he intentionally slows his curveball down to create some difference between that and his fastball.

Walker’s work ethic and ability to use information to improve sets him apart from his peers. If there is an avenue for him to get better, I am confident that he will use it.

A big reason why Walker was still a free agent this late in the offseason is because of his underlying numbers and peripherals. There are a few reasons why I think these underlying numbers should see an improvement this season.

Number one, is his HR/9 rate. Walker’s HR/9 in 2020 was 1.35, but in 2017 when he was at his best, he posted a 0.97. I expect that number to regress this season, especially when you remember the fact that Major League Baseball is deadening the baseball.

Another reason to consider is because Walker’s FIP for the 2020 season was heavily weighed down by three bad starts, and two of those three starts took place within the first two weeks of the season. Considering the strange off-season and pandemic restart, I think it is fair to give Walker a pass for those poor outings.

The final reason is that he should have more confidence in his pitches, as well as more data to show how effective said pitches were in 2020. Walker was essentially re-acclimating and re-inventing himself last season, and now he has more information on when he should throw which pitch.

Towards the end of his interview, Walker mentioned that he would prefer to be on a team that uses a lot of technology and data.

Today in his media session, Walker said a big reason he chose the Mets was due to their technology on the pitching side. It is certainly nice to see players praise the Mets in that regard, something that was not previously done under the old ownership.

I fully expect Walker to build on his 2020 success, and help turn this Mets starting rotation from ‘really good’ to ‘elite.’