The 2019 season was a banner one for National League Rookie of the Year, Pete Alonso. The New York Mets first baseman collected a laundry list of rookie records and personal accomplishments throughout his first 162-game trek through the big leagues, with the most notable of all being the MLB rookie home-run record.
Of course, the big question moving forward for Alonso is what kind of encore performance can he put together after such an awe-inspiring campaign? Numbers like the 25-year-old’s 4.8 fWAR, 143 wRC+, and 53 dingers are obvious numbers that jump out when looking at his season-long statistics. The other numbers that jump out to me, though, include Alonso’s 120 RBI and 103 runs scored.
When looking at where both of those numbers land in Mets history, they’re among the franchise leaders. The only guys ahead of him in the RBI department include David Wright and Mike Piazza (124, and Alonso’s 120 also tied Robin Ventura). From a runs scored perspective, he landed within the top 20.
There have only been 34 different seasons of 30-plus homers by a player donning the orange and blue, so Alonso immediately joining that club was already special (breaking the franchise record in August adds to that, as well). When we add at least 100 RBI with those 30-plus dingers, the number of players in this group shrinks to 18. When we add 100-plus runs scored to both of those previous criteria, Alonso is included in a group of 10 Mets players all time.
How exactly can he continue to distinguish himself more than he already has upon entering Year two in the big leagues? Well, if we look at Mets players who have reached or surpassed each of these three benchmarks in consecutive seasons, the group becomes that much smaller.
If we solely look at those who have accomplished this feat multiple times in Flushing, we have a group of eight players. It stands at just six for those who’ve done it multiple years in a row, though. That select club includes Wright, Piazza, Carlos Beltran, Darryl Strawberry, Dave Kingman, and Todd Hundley.
Not some bad names to be associated with when discussing Mets franchise history — especially since Alonso is the only rookie throwing his weight around here. There have been a handful of instances where players have done this in three different years, but Piazza is the only one to accomplish the feat in consecutive years. In fact, he put together four consecutive years of 30-plus homers, 100-plus RBI, and 100-plus runs scored. That guy was pretty good.
So if Alonso is able to keep up this pace over the next couple years, just he and Piazza will be in that exclusive group. Again, not bad company to have.
After watching the 2019 season run its course, New York has only had five different seasons of 40-plus homers, with Alonso being the sole player to surpass the half-century mark. Even if he experiences some negative regression in 2020, there’s a very good chance he’ll hit these benchmarks again. And if we gets past 40 homers again, he’d be the only Mets player to have multiple such single-season performances, let alone in consecutive years.
It’s helpful that he’s shown a tendency to hit all kinds of pitches for power, which will be a helpful skill to have as the league tries to make it harder for him to continue his current levels of production. We did see some of that adjusting happen between the first and second half, as his wRC+ (160 to 123), ISO (.354 to .287), and strikeout rate (24.5% to 28.7%) all worsened. He still found a way to produce at a well-above-average pace, though.
Both his ZiPS and Steamer projections have him just missing this trifecta of benchmarks in 2020, with runs scored being the only issue. However, the one thing they both agreed upon was that he’d hit more than 40 homers again. Anyway you slice it, Alonso’s offense is incredibly valuable to the middle of the Mets’ lineup on a daily basis. In making the league minimum last season ($555K), FanGraphs tabulated that his 4.8 fWAR was worth about $38.7 million.
If he can continue some semblance of this torrid start to his career, he’s going to get some incredibly hefty raises via the arbitration process without any kind of future contract extension in place. Let’s hope it gets to that point, though, because it’ll mean he’s remained a huge catalyst to the Mets being successful and this offense packing a big punch.
