Everyone has the Nationals as a lock? GREAT! Hope the Nats are thinking the same thing too!
The Nationals made a big off season splash inking Max Scherzer. They signed him for seven years but backloaded the contract so this year it is only $10MM, $15MM for the three years after that, $35MM for the final three years, and $50MM as a signing bonus to be spread out over the seven years. Final tally for the Scott Boras client: seven years at $210MM.
So, while Mike Rizzo landed the top free agent, how much did he improve his team? After all, this puts last year’s #5 starter, Tanner Roark, in the bullpen and he was 15-10, had a 2.85 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and threw 199 innings.
How much will Scherzer improve on that? And if you are wondering about Roark’s ability to repeat, in 2013 he was 7-1, had a 1.51 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP in 54 innings. The kid has talent. While I really admire Rizzo and his building of the Washington organization, wouldn’t a signing of Hanley Ramirez, or Pablo Sandoval, or even Chase Headley for third base and the middle of the lineup, and shifting Anthony Rendon to second base be more of an overall team upgrade, especially with the loss of Adam LaRoche?
Presently the Nationals have injuries to Denard Span that will keep him out for six weeks and then probably needing a couple of weeks to get up to speed and to Jayson Werth who is 35 and has already shown age, but traded away the talented reserve Steven Souza in December for a player to be named. Speaking of injuries, Ryan Zimmerman is seemingly always hurt and there are worries that bat has slowed down quite a bit, while Rendon repeating his great year or even staying healthy is not a given due to his injury history in the minors and majors. There’s already concern Rendon will have to start the season on the disabled list. There is no denying that Bryce Harper and Ian Desmond are talented and motivated to impress, but what else can they absolutely count on?
As for their lone lineup addition, they traded a valuable bullpen piece in Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar. Escobar is a good defensive player at SS and will learn second base, but he will not significantly add to the offense batting in the #7 or #8 spot. Also, the injuries will lead to unproven rookies filling in a lineup that has two of their “heart of the order” hitters hoping to turn back the clock. If I were a Nats fan, I’d be concerned.
Continuing, as we have mentioned, the bullpen has lost some important contributors. Not just a dependable all-star like Clippard but the loss of Rafael Soriano (who was putrid down the stretch but helped them win many games in the previous four and a half months) are losses that have to be replaced. Oh yeah, the ownership of Washington wants to slash payroll, not add to it. [I’ve heard that before somewhere else…]
So, the Nationals have a stronger starting rotation, albeit a seemingly small upgrade, but have regressed in their lineup and their bullpen. In this writer’s view, the Nationals are vulnerable and are showing fractures in their armor. Not only are they starting the season missing some valuable lineup pieces, but Zimmerman is brittle and even Rendon has had trouble staying healthy in the past. Their bullpen can use a proven closer, but the ownership has locked away the checkbook.
This vulnerability can open the door to upstarts like the Mets and the Marlins to win the division. Some of you may laugh at this, but while the Nationals get all the press, I believe they are closer to a rebuild by getting rid of Zimmerman, Werth, and Span and going younger than they are to a World Series. Popular opinion has the Marlins having a more improved and overall better team than the Mets, but if the Mets can get to 91 wins, they may have a chance at playing the winner of the central division in the opening round of the playoffs.
