One of the many things New York Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has done this winter is make some major upgrades to the bullpen. It’s a good thing, too — not only was this the least productive part of the roster in 2018, but it was also the third-worst unit in baseball.
The Mets haven’t exactly built a bullpen that’s as frightening as what the New York Yankees have assembled, but BVW has given ample attention to this particular area of need. In addition to bringing in the unique abilities of Edwin Diaz, New York has also brought Jeurys Familia back, along with most recently signing left-hander Justin Wilson to a two-year deal (specifically talking about non-minor-league contracts here).
We recently projected what the Mets’ bullpen will look like come Opening Day against the Washington Nationals, but what kind of production should we be expecting from this group? Just about anything will be better than 2018, right?
That’s very true. With the help of FanGraphs’ Steamer Projections, we can get a picture of what to expect once games start to count. The below seven hurlers are the same ones our own Rob Piersall mentioned the other day.
| Player | IP | K% | BB% | ERA | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | 65 | 37.2% | 8.4% | 2.45 | 1.4 |
| Jeurys Familia | 65 | 26.5% | 9.5% | 3.27 | 0.7 |
| Justin Wilson | 45 | 28.7% | 11.0% | 3.37 | 0.4 |
| Robert Gsellman | 55 | 20.2% | 7.5% | 3.90 | 0.2 |
| Seth Lugo | 55 | 24.3% | 6.3% | 3.56 | 0.4 |
| Luis Avilan | 10 | 23.5% | 10.2% | 3.73 | 0.1 |
| Kyle Dowdy | 20 | 21.7% | 7.9% | 3.87 | 0.1 |
Obviously, there will be other relievers contributing to this group that will eventually add (or subtract) to their cumulative fWAR by the end of next season. Guys like Daniel Zamora, Drew Smith, Jacob Rhame, Paul Sewald, Tyler Bashlor, and others could be varying factors depending on how Spring Training goes, but the above group is at least mostly in stone.
Avilan’s projection is likely light since he’s a non-roster invitee to big-league camp. However, it seems as if he has a good shot at heading north with the club once Grapefruit League action wraps up. But still, if we take these projections at face value (and with a grain of salt), the Mets’ cumulative fWAR projection for these seven players is 3.3.
If we take a look at 2018’s team bullpen stats, that fWAR would’ve put New York in the middle of the pack. Posting a cumulative ERA below 4.00 would’ve had them just outside the top 10. Those projections would be a massive improvement after taking another glance at last year’s bullpen production (-0.6 fWAR and 4.96 ERA).
Based off what the Mets’ bullpen has done on a yearly basis since 2010, it’d immediately make them the franchise’s third-best unit this decade.
| Year | IP | K% | BB% | ERA | fWAR | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 546.1 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 4.96 | -0.6 | 28th |
| 2017 | 569.0 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 4.82 | 0.8 | 28th |
| 2016 | 525.0 | 25.6% | 8.5% | 3.53 | 6.2 | 4th |
| 2015 | 460.0 | 23.2% | 8.9% | 3.48 | 3.5 | 13th |
| 2014 | 478.2 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.14 | 0.5 | 25th |
| 2013 | 507.0 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 3.98 | 1.9 | 24th |
| 2012 | 458.2 | 19.7% | 10.2% | 4.65 | 0.6 | 28th |
| 2011 | 474.0 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 4.33 | 1.2 | 23rd |
| 2010 | 481.0 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 3.59 | 2.0 | 17th |
With regard to success for the Mets, the above bullpen results show us that if they plan on being a contender, they at least need a middle-of-the-road group of relievers. Diaz and Familia should hopefully allow manager Mickey Callaway to use his two most reliable relievers from last year — Lugo and Gsellman — in tight situations earlier in games (when necessary).
Building a quality bullpen and watching them execute on a regular basis is something that has mostly escaped the Mets in recent years — especially since reaching the playoffs in 2015 and 2016. Even with the offense as bad as it was at certain times last year, I thought that rebuilding the bullpen was BVW’s biggest task.
There are still some options out there to keep tabs on as Spring Training approaches, but we can certainly expect the heavy lifting to be mostly done, if not completely finished. Nothing helps a bullpen more than an effective starting rotation, so hopefully Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler can lead the staff in a similar way to what they did in 2018.
The only difference that would be helpful this time around is that the revamped bullpen actually takes advantage of it while simultaneously helping deGrom rack up more than 10 wins in 2019.
