The New York Mets are set to leapfrog the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins and secure a top two finish in the NL East this season, according to the sportsbooks. Washington is the clear favorite to win the division for a third time in a row, but the Mets are now second favorites ahead of the new season. Make sure to check Bookmaker for latest odds and you will see that they are comfortably ahead of the Braves, Phillies and Marlins in the futures lines for NL East. That sentiment is backed up by FanGraphs data, which projects that the Mets will go 81-81 in 2018 and finished second behind Washington.
That projected improvement of 11 wins is the second highest in the league, behind only the Giants, which should give fans cause for optimism. It is fair to say that along with the Giants, the Mets were the biggest disappointment of 2017. They were widely expected to challenge the Nationals for the division and then go on to threaten the playoffs, but they were decimated by injuries and frequently struck down by bad fortune.
It has since been a time of great change for the Mets, who have brought in Mickey Callaway to replace Terry Collins. They signed third baseman Todd Frazier to a two-year, $17-million contract in one of their biggest moves of the off-season, while picking up options on Jerry Blevins and Asdrubal Cabrera, bringing back Jay Bruce, and signing Jason Vargas, Anthony Swarzak, Adrian Gonzalez and Jose Reyes to low cost deals.
“I think that we benefited from the slow market,” Sandy Alderson said on Mets Hot Stove last night. “It allowed us to make a deal, absorb it, think about it, move on to the next thing. And it gave us plenty of time to get through six or seven acquisitions.”
“The difficulty is not so much being patient and waiting for the market to come to us. It’s also knowing when the time is right to make a decision. Patience can be a virtue, but ultimately you have to make a decision at the right time.”
When you consider how things appeared at the beginning of the offseason when both Alderson and owner Jeff Wilpon suggested a lower payroll and some belt tightening after a 92 loss season, you really have to hand it to them for how things worked out in the end.
And yes, I do believe fan backlash on social media had something to do with it. Over the last two years, the Mets have suddenly become very aware and sensitive of how the fan base has weaponized Twitter and often wield that power whenever things go awry.
Long story short, the Mets arguably had one of the game’s most productive hauls this offseason. Each acquisition had purpose and addressed a significant need without having to break the bank on any one player.
Bruce was strong defensively last year and managed to hit 36 home runs, while Swarzak was one of the top 20 relievers in the game last season. Reyes hit .288/.356/.472 in the second half of the season and should continue on an upward curve while filling a super utility role and adding the element of much-needed speed.
Among my favorite additions, Frazier is a significant defensive upgrade at third with a winning attitude and a potent power bat who is prepared to do whatever his manager asks. “I’ll talk with Mickey and see what they want,” he said. “Whatever they need… I saw what they did in 2015 and if we’re healthy, we’ve got a shot at doing that again.” That is fighting talk indeed.
It remains to be seen if the Mets are a team that is built for the future; but it is certainly one designed to win now. Add all the new talent to a roster laden with many players that went to the World Series as recently as 2015, and you have a very strong club that should battle for at least a wild card. But so much depends on the Mets’ ability to keep key players free of injury.
Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom form a sensational 1-2 punch, and the addition of Vargas bolsters the team with a quality innings eater that will likely ensure that poor options like Tommy Milone, Tyler Pill and Adam Wilk won’t get any starts in 2018.
Either Matt Harvey or Steven Matz is a strong number four with the other rounding off the rotation in the fifth spot. Most teams would give anything for a backend of the rotation with this much potential.
Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto are difference makers, but are also big question marks in the injury department. The good news is that both are in camp, the medical reports are good, and they both say they have some unfinished business in the postseason.
Right now it is difficult to see the Mets outperforming the Nationals and winning the division, but it’s not impossible. The two teams face each other for the first of 19 games this season on April 5, and that could set the tone for the rest of the campaign.
If the Mets go in with a strong team and produce an emphatic win, that could drive them to glory. But if they do not win the division, they could still make the playoffs. The Wild Card race will be very competitive, with Arizona, Chicago, Colorado, Milwaukee, San Francisco and St. Louis all in the mix.
I believe 86 wins is a realistic target for the Mets if they are not hit too badly by injuries. This team is good enough to challenge in the playoffs and it should be able to thrive in a division that is 60 percent rebuilds.
Maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but I simply don’t buy FanGraphs’ 81 win projection. I thought the Mets were an 81 win team before they signed Frazier and Vargas. With them you could confidently put another five games in the win column.
Prediction: Mets will win just enough games to eke out a wild card spot in 2018.
