Outside of their selection of right-hander Justin Dunn (Boston College) in the first round of the 2016 MLB Draft, the New York Mets have never made another 19th-overall pick in the 55-year history of the first-year player draft.
Dunn, famously traded along with Jarred Kelenic – the Mets’ sixth-overall pick in 2018 – and three other players to Seattle for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz ahead of the 2019 season, was preparing to make a splash with the Mariners in 2020 and, by all accounts, was a solid mid-to-late pick.
And the Long Island native is not alone in that designation.
Over the last decade, the No. 19 pick has produced a future All-Star (Mike Foltynewicz, 2010), solid rotational cogs (Michael Wacha, 2012; Marco Gonzales, 2013), and high-ceiling position players (Kevin Newman, 2015; Heliot Ramos, 2017; Nolan Gorman, 2018).
Sonny Gray and Corey Seager, No. 18 picks of Oakland in 2011 and Los Angeles in 2012, respectively – as well as Gavin Lux, the Dodgers’ No. 20 overall selection in 2018 – are all clear evidence of high value in and around that slot.
The Mets have had mixed results in that mid-to-back-end portion of the first round in recent years, but there have been high points.
Ike Davis (No. 18, 2008) and Aaron Heilman (No. 18, 2001) were solid major league contributors – albeit to varying degrees – and David Peterson (20th overall in 2017) has developed into a viable option once a spot opens up in the Mets’ current pitching staff.
Terrence Long (20th overall, 1994) was flipped for left-hander Kenny Rogers in 1999, helping push the Mets into the postseason. Gregg Jefferies (No. 20, 1985), sent to Kansas City in 1991 for former AL Cy Young Award winner Bret Saberhagen, turned in a fine career despite his hiccups in New York (.289/.344/.421, 107 wRC+ over 14-year MLB career).
Though, as evidenced by forgettable names like Billy Beane, Reese Havens, and Dave Proctor – all picked by the Mets within that same mid-to-late first-round window over the years – they can’t all be hits.
With the 2020 Draft being shortened to just five rounds instead of the customary 40 due to – but not limited to – the COVID-19 global health crisis, this process has been magnified and the pressure to hit on a pick has increased exponentially.
The first round of the draft is expected to produce future major leaguers. With a half-dozen draft picks and a substantially reduced free agent funds pool to draw from, the Mets certainly have their work cut out for them.
Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen is preparing to adapt to this altered landscape.
“Change forces ingenuity. Since we don’t have the benefit of getting fresh talent evaluations this spring, we have to develop new models to properly weigh the track record of past performance with the incredibly small sample sizes produced in 2020.”
Van Wagenen’s ever-growing talent evaluation department appears primed to embrace this mayhem and adjust accordingly. Let’s hope that produces a handful of blue-chip ballplayers this week.
