Guillermo Heredia Slated to Serve As Fourth Outfielder In 2021

Needless to say, the New York Mets are far from finished conducting their business this offseason and will need to address several concerns involving their current roster once the holiday season passes.

As of right now, adding an impact starter and a reliable center fielder are certainly the two most obvious needs the front office must take care of before players report to spring training in a few months. Though the free-agent market hasn’t seen much action as of yet, which will hopefully change as the winter progresses, management definitely has the financial resources at their disposal to dramatically improve this team for next season.

While locating a fourth outfielder isn’t as noteworthy as acquiring someone like George Springer – who’s been linked to the Mets numerous times this offseason – it’s still a very important position for any team that’s looking to make a deep playoff run. Since that’s exactly what this organization is striving to accomplish in 2021, they can’t afford to overlook this spot on their roster.

Whoever general manager Jared Porter and his staff acquire to become the everyday center fielder, whether it’s Springer or someone else, that player will undoubtedly occupy the majority of playing time in the middle of the outfield. But considering the center field spot has been somewhat of a “black hole” recently, it’d probably be wise for them to feature someone on their bench who’s capable of playing in all three outfield positions.

Even though the Mets could simply land a player who fits that profile in free agency, it seems they might already have the perfect candidate for that role on their 40-man roster. Acquired off waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates during the 2020 campaign, outfielder Guillermo Heredia only spent a brief time in blue pinstripes before the regular season concluded, but he seemingly did enough to earn a one-year, $1 million deal to avoid arbitration earlier this month.

Despite spending just 43.0 innings in center field with the Mets, Heredia displayed some promising signs over his limited playing time, posting a 1 OAA, 0.4 RngR (range runs above average), -0.6 UZR, and a 6.6 UZR/150 during that span.

Granted this isn’t a large sample size and none of these metrics jump off the page, the 29-year does possess a history of performing extremely well in center field – he featured a career 14 OAA heading in 2020 – and there’s a solid chance his impressive results will return if provided with more playing time moving forward.

Digging deeper into his craft, Heredia is an extremely quick defender who can cover plenty of ground in center field, which is a trait some Mets’ center fielders have lacked in prior seasons. While he may have lost a bit of a step last season, although it’s possible the lack of playing time caused his agility metrics to slightly decline, the right-hander was still considered one of the fastest outfielders in the majors.

Among all outfielders who earned at least 10 fielding attempts, the former Pirate finished with the eighth-highest reaction (1.4-feet), tied for the 18th-highest burst (0.9-feet), and tied for the 19th-most feet covered versus the league average (1.2-feet), according to BaseballSavant.com.

In comparison, the 5-foot-10 outfielder finished with the 11th-most feet covered versus the league average (2.1-feet) and tied for the 12th-highest highest reaction (1.3-feet) and burst (1.2-feet) during the 2019 campaign.

As for his skills on the basepaths, Heredia was able to make an impact as a base runner last season, however, it didn’t necessarily show up in the form of stolen bases. Along with being a base-stealing threat, the native of Cuba also utilized his impressive speed – his sprint speed of 28.2 feet per second ranked in the 78th percentile in 2019 – to position himself into scoring position multiple different times.

Despite stealing just one base in 2020, the explosive outfielder still created a 0.7 BsR (base running runs above average) and a 5.9 speed score over his 36 plate appearances split between the Mets and the Pirates.

For comparison, the Mets finished last season with the second-lowest BsR (-11.1) and the fourth-lowest speed score (3.6) among all 30 teams in the majors, according to FanGraphs.com.

Taking into account Heredia hasn’t produced a wRC+ score above 93 throughout his entire career, he doesn’t exactly provide much offensive upside, but the veteran hitter did record a strikeout rate below 16.0% in three consecutive seasons with the Seattle Mariners from 2016-2018. The soon-to-be 30-year old has also endured much more success against left-handed pitchers, meaning there’s a good chance his overall results would significantly improve if he primarily matchups up against them next season.

Through his 502 career plate appearances against lefties, the right-hander batter has created 26 doubles, 10 home runs, 44 RBIs, .124 ISO, .314 BABIP, .320 wOBA, 7.8% walk rate, 16.1% strikeout rate, 23.1% LD rate, 27.3% hard-hit rate, a 103 wRC+ score, and a slashing line of .274/.337/.397/.735.

If all goes well and the outfield stays healthy in 2021, Heredia probably won’t receive anywhere close to 500 plate appearances during his first full season with the Mets. That being said, there’s no question he can help improve their overall quickness in the field, on the bases, performance against left-handed hurlers, and provide a boost to their defense if needed.

Thanks to former general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who may have actually accomplished something productive during his final season in Queens, it seems New York might not have to search very far to find its fourth outfielder next season. Though he’ll still need to earn the job this spring, Heredia appears to have a head start on his competition for the role.

With the front office pushing extremely hard to land Springer this offseason, if they’re successful in their pursuit the Mets could potentially feature one of the top outfields in the majors with teammates Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo controlling the two corner spots.