With the news Monday that RHP Tyler Clippard signed a 2-year $12.5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, it seems the Mets bullpen is quite set, albeit a minor league signing or two.
Throughout the offseason, fans were calling for general manager Sandy Alderson to address the bullpen inefficiencies. Deploying a deep bullpen has been an important blueprint for the past World Series winners. Mets fans can only imagine what a lock-down bullpen and fewer defensive miscues would’ve meant for the 2015 Series. Most likely, fans would’ve been flocking to Citi Field on April 8th to see the Mets hang their World Series Champion banner.
Alas, that’s in the past. We must look forward and anticipate an extremely competitive 2016 season ahead. The Mets did add LHP Antonio Bastardo in free agency, a move that was met with mainly high praise. The Mets also tendered RHP Addison Reed, LHP Josh Edgin, and signed LHP Jerry Blevins.
It looks like the Mets will hang their hopes on guys looking to bounce back from off years, injuries, and an array of young intriguing arms. One such arm, Erik Goeddel, might turn out to be an important contributor for the Mets, and one that could appear in higher leverage situations as the year goes on.
And yes, Goeddel, 27, was anything but impressive in Game 3 of the NLDS, when he allowed four hits, including a three-run home run to Howie Kendrick. That would be the last time Goeddel would be heard from, as he was replaced in the NLCS by LHP Sean Gilmartin.
Goeddel had a rough inning at a time when every pitch is analyzed closer than throughout the regular season. And true, it would be nice to see Goeddel succeed at that stage and offer more assurance that he’d pan out in the high leverage situations for future roles.
But based on advanced metrics, I believe Goeddel can be an integral member of the Mets pen. Perusing through Fangraphs, I came across plate discipline stats that illustrate how well a pitcher misses bats, the contact hitters make on pitches in and outside the strike zone, etc.
I wanted to compare Goeddel’s stats to two arms the Mets could’ve had this offseason, Joakim Soria and the freshly signed Clippard. Comparing their swinging strike percentage, Goedell leads the pack at 12.6%, followed by Clippard at 12% and Soria at 10%. Goedell also grabs the top spot when it comes to contact percentage, the amount of time a hitter makes contact on all pitches, ranking at 71.9%, Clippard at 75.8% and Soria at 79.6%. Conclusion, Goeddel has the repertoire to miss bats.
Another stat from Fangraphs that caught my eye is O-Contact%, or the percentage of time a batter makes contact with pitches thrown outside the strike zone. To fool batters with outside pitches is crucial to keep them off balance or put them away. Once again, Goedell had the best percentage of the three at 48.1%. The next closest was at 68.9%! Which was Soria, and then Clippard listed at 69.4%.
Goeddel will be making around the Major League minimum this season, and isn’t arbitration eligible until 2018. Soria just signed a 3-year deal for $25 million. Clippard is at $12.5 million. Now both would’ve been welcome additions to this Mets squad, but my point is simply highlighting some stats that are worth noting heading into the season. And all at a fraction of the cost of Soria and Clippard.
Goeddel’s regular season stats were nothing to scoff at, a WHIP under 1.00, 9.2 strikeouts per 9, and holding right-handers to an OPS of .568 and lefties to .520.
Remember too that Goeddel missed more than two months of the season with a right elbow strain, which cost him precious time gaining trust from Terry Collins in tougher spots. Now heading into 2016, Goeddel has the chance to be an option for Collins, and is looking for redemption from Game 3 of the NLDS.
Don’t be surprised to see Goeddel get a good amount of opportunities early on in the year. Collins is going to need options in case Addison Reed and or Antonio Bastardo are unavailable in the later innings. And Reed has had his own troubles, making him anything but a sure bet for those situations. Being able to add Goeddel as an arm that can be entrusted with holding late leads, and handing the ball off to Familia in the ninth could be an added value for the Mets in 2016.
