Ahead of the 2020 season, let’s take a closer look at the Atlanta Braves’ free agents and see who may be worth pursuing in the offseason.
Though the Atlanta Braves are certain to remain a threat in the NL East for years to come, they shouldn’t be expected to keep a hold of every contract set to come off the books next month. Atlanta has nine impending free agents, with a couple intriguing names the Mets would be smart to keep an eye on – both at the plate and on the mound:
Josh Donaldson, 3B
The Bringer of Rain is set to turn 34 in December, but just turned in his first 150-game season since 2016, all the while putting on an offensive clinic. His 4.9 fWAR was the second-highest on the team behind Ronald Acuña Jr., though his .900 OPS, .262 ISO, and 132 wRC+ were all better. His 37 homers (nine against the Mets, for those keeping track) were tied with Josh Bell for the ninth-most in the National League.
He also excelled on defense, saving 15 runs at the hot corner to nearly lap NL runner-up Nolan Arenado‘s eight. He originally came to Atlanta on a show-me one-year deal, but should command quite a secondary market beneath Anthony Rendon. Cap space and Jeff McNeil being an incumbent fill-in at third both make for convenient reasons the Mets would likely neglect to pursue Donaldson, but there’s literally no argument against the merits of talking to his agents and keeping options open.
Verdict: Consider
Matthew Joyce, OF
Joyce’s playing time was spread out thinly early on with Ender Inciarte, Austin Riley, and Nick Markakis much more squarely in the picture, though he still thrived as a left-handed bat off the bench, hitting .295/.408/.450 with a career-best 40.6% hard-hit rate. He hit .340 with runners in scoring position and collected the second-most pinch-hits in the league behind Pablo Sandoval.
Though he’ll be 35 next season, Joyce’s strides could help him catch a part-time role with a competitive team for 2020. He’s all but blocked by the 24-year old Dominic Smith, though the possibility that the Mets trade him for reinforcements leaves Joyce a remote possibility this offseason. Can’t cross the bridge till we get there, though.
Verdict: Pass
Francisco Cervelli, C/1B
Cervelli has sustained six concussions in his 10-year big-league career behind the plate, and has seemingly called it quits in that department. He was limited to just 48 games between the Pirates and Braves (his fewest since 2013), and he struggled in that time, posting a career-worst 73 wRC+ while batting just .213/.302/.348 in 2019.
Hopefully Cervelli can find peace in a more protective role at first base next season, but the reality is he has almost no such path cut out for him in a Met uniform.
Verdict: Pass
Josh Tomlin, RHP
Tomlin follows the grain of Braves free agents who will be 35 next season, and will do so hoping to build off an encouraging step forward as a long-reliever. Across 51 games and 79.1 innings, he worked to a 3.74 ERA while walking under a batter per nine innings.
Gaining a few miles per hour on his fastball and developing a mean cutter both benefitted Tomlin, but his groundball rate remained in the low-30% range, and most predictive metrics (namely his 4.58 SIERA and 4.95 xFIP) suggest his work with Atlanta may not carry over as nicely in 2020. The Mets have little margin for error in their bullpen, even less so in the reinforcements they pursue. Tomlin’s slope may be a bit too slippery for a big-league deal.
Verdict: Pass
Dallas Keuchel, LHP
The 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner didn’t sign until the first week of June, and had an ERA just a hair under four at the beginning of August. The last two months of an otherwise strange season seemed to be all Keuchel needed to get things moving in the right direction, though. He worked to a 2.55 ERA through his final nine starts and held together a 62.4% groundball rate to earn a spot in the Braves’ playoff rotation over Julio Teheran.
Keuchel didn’t necessarily pitch well enough to push his worth beyond the $13MM he made in Atlanta, but he still maintained his case as one of the game’s more reliable left-handed starters. Signing a 2.1 WAR-pitcher to fill Zack Wheeler‘s 3.5 in the rotation isn’t sufficient, but it could still keep the fort upright if the bulk of the Mets’ remaining budget goes strictly towards solidifying the bullpen.
Verdict: Pursue
Anthony Swarzak, RHP
A former Met cast off to Seattle in last year’s trade for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano, Swarzak was able to put together a healthy 59-game season between the Mariners and Braves. Unfortunately for the right-hander, the results were more of the same, if not worse: his 5.71 FIP was actually worse than his 5.48 mark as a Met, and he still averaged 2 homers and 4.6 walks per nine innings while his strikeouts per nine fell from 10.6 to 8.8.
His numbers in the second half were even more brutal: a 7.25 ERA and .323 opponent batting average that finished second-to-last and third-to-last in the NL among nearly 100 relievers (min. 20 innings pitched).
Verdict: Pass
Chris Martin, RHP
Martin worked out a 3.40 ERA and 3.25 FIP between the Rangers and Braves, averaging 11.2 strikeouts to 0.5 walks per nine as one of Atlanta’s many midseason relief acquisitions. His fastball sat just under 96 mph, and his splitter grades out as one of the hardest in the game to hit. He boasted reverse splits, holding lefties to just a .578 OPS over 101 plate appearances.
Prior to his Rangers debut the year before, Martin had grinded out two years out of the bullpen with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan with an impressive 1.12 ERA through 92 appearances. Primarily a mid-leverage, single-inning option, Martin fits pretty snugly in the Mets’ current bullpen.
Verdict: Pursue
Darren O’Day, RHP
The submariner O’Day will be 37 in barely a week, and has scratched off just 28 total appearances between Baltimore and Atlanta since 2018. Between a hyperextended elbow, forearm strain, and hamstring troubles, he’s still held up fairly well in the limited action he has gotten off the mound. He’s still struck out 33 while walking five in that split sample, but there’s still no knowing how many games he’d be able to give the Mets or any team in 2020.
However exciting he once was as Baltimore’s weirdest setup man four years ago, and however elusive his arm slot remains, O’Day simply isn’t a reliever the Mets should be breaking the bank for. On a harmless one-year deal as one component, though, the Mets could have an avenue worth exploring.
Verdict: Consider
Adeiny Hechavarria, IF
Hechavarria, of course, landed in Atlanta after the Mets released him mere days before they would have had to pay a $1MM roster incentive, which will presumably factor in his own consideration to come back. He had been hitting .204/.252/.359 when he was waived, and naturally proceeded to hit .328/.400/.639 in 70 plate appearances as a late-season utilityman with the Braves.
Conventional wisdom says he probably won’t return any calls from Queens, and that may not be an issue for the Mets anyway, with Jed Lowrie, Luis Guillorme, and possibly even Joe Panik (albeit on a lesser deal) all capable of performing the same role.
Verdict: Pass
By Jack Hendon
