Shōta Imanaga

Position: SP B/T: L/L
Age: 30 (09/01/1993)

2023 Traditional Stats (NPB): 24 G, 159 IP, 7-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 188 SO, 24 BB

Rundown

A two-time NPB All-Star, Imanaga is coming to the major leagues this year as part of what is maybe the best international class of free agents ever. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has gotten the majority of the headlines, but Imanaga is plenty good in his own right. Not only did he have a lot of success in 2023, as shown above, but it was a continuation of what has been a great professional career. In seven of his eight seasons he has thrown at least 140 innings, only failing to do so in the shortened 2020 season. In six of those seven he has finished with an ERA under 3.00, including each of the past three years. His career-best was in 2022, when he posted a 2.04 ERA over 158 and 2/3 innings. His 0.901 WHIP that season was also a career-best.

One knock on Imanaga could be the long ball, giving up 18 in 2023, but his 1.0 HR/9 would have been a little better than league-average among major-league pitchers. Naturally, it’s fair to expect it to be higher in 2024, but it shouldn’t be a huge problem. His 10.6 K/9 in 2023 was a career-best in a full season, as was his 1.4 BB/9. Just 10 qualified MLB pitchers had a K/9 above 10 in 2023, and just three had a BB/9 under 1.5 — and no pitcher had both. Kodai Senga had a 9.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in his final season in Japan and a 10.9 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 with the Mets in 2023. Obviously, Imanaga won’t transition to MLB the exact same way Senga did, but it’s just a reference point.

Imanaga also pitched well enough during the World Baseball Classic in 2023, giving up seven hits and two runs on two solo home runs across six innings, striking out seven with no walks. He was the winning pitcher in the WBC final, giving up one run in two innings en route to Team Japan’s win over Team USA.

At the WBC, Imanaga posted the best Stuff+ of anyone in the tournament, even beating out Yamamoto, who came in second. A simplified definition of Stuff+ is a model that “aims to capture the ‘nastiest’ pitches in baseball,” Owen McGrattan of Fangraphs states. MLB’s Stuff+ leaders in 2023 were Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease.

Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions writes that Imanaga has a six-pitch arsenal: fastball, slider, splitter, curveball, cutter, and changeup. His fastball averages 91.8 mph, most of the breaking and off-speed pitches are in the low-to-mid 80-mph range, and the curve is in the low-70s. He also throws different variations of some of his pitches, like a normal slider vs. a sweeper and a super-slow curve that clocks in at the 50-mph range, though it’s rarely actually thrown. A detailed breakdown of his arsenal and how he uses it can be found here.

On the 20-80 scouting scale, Fangraphs lists Imanaga with a 40-grade fastball, 55-grade slider, 40-grade curveball, 50-grade changeup, and 70-grade command. They project him to finish with a 3.84 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.17 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, and 2.6 fWAR in 2024.

Contract

With the Yamamoto sweepstakes possibly coming to an end soon, reports are trickling out that Imanaga might end up as the consolation prize for the team that misses out on Yamamoto. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Mets and Yankees are eyeing the Japanese lefty as a “fallback option” while also listing the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Cubs as other teams in the mix. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported the same thing a few days ago, but left the Yankees off the list.

In that report, Morosi said some in the industry believe Imanaga could get around $20-million per year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a five-year, $85-million contract for him back at the beginning of November, but his price seems to have gone up a bit in the month since the prediction was released. At 30 years old, the same age Senga was when the Mets signed him, a contract similar to Senga’s could be pretty realistic. The five-year, $75-million deal Senga got might be too low due to the demand for starting pitching this offseason, but adding a few more millions to the average annual value would probably get it done.

Recommendation

If the Mets miss out on Yamamoto, a pivot to Imanaga should be the team’s No. 1 priority. Even if the Mets end up with Yamamoto, they can still go after Imanaga and then move to a six-man rotation. Even if he ends up with a larger contract than the one Senga got a year ago, that’s fine.

Five for $75 million for Senga at this point looks like a steal. The Mets are incredibly thin at starting pitcher. They have no choice but to sign at least a couple of arms. Imanaga is one of the best on the market.