Max Kepler, OF

Postion: OF B/T: L/L
Age: 31 (02/10/1993)

2023 Traditional Stats: 399 PA, .253/.302/.380/.682, 8 HR, 42 RBI,
2023 Advanced Stats: 91 wRC+, 20.1 SO%, 5.5 BB%, .300 BABIP, .301 xwOBA, 1.0 fWAR

Rundown

It’s unfortunate timing for MLB’s best-ever German-born player to be hitting free agency, coming off what is probably the worst season (.682 OPS) of his 10-year career. He posted his lowest fWAR and was tied for the lowest wRC+ (94) of his career since his debut year in 2015 when he played in just three games. All of his peripherals were way, way down.

He’ll be 32 by Opening Day, so he very well could just be on the natural downslope of his career, but there is at least some reason to think he could bounce back. Just one year ago, Kepler had one of the best seasons of his career.

In 2023, Kepler slashed .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 24 home runs (the second most of his career only behind 2019). His 123 wRC+ was the top mark of his career and his 2.8 fWAR was second. He was in the 75th percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, chase rate, and whiff rate.

Like most left-handed hitters, he hit right-handed pitchers much better. The Mets would do their best to platoon him too, with other right-handed outfielders Starling Marte and Tyrone Taylor on the team. Specifically, he actually hit southpaws better overall in 2024, but over his career (.778 OPS versus righties, .655 OPS against lefties) and in 2023, he had the splits of a typical lefty.

Kepler is also a strong defender. Even in 2024, while his offensive numbers took a sharp turn for the worse, his defensive numbers more or less stayed consistent. He had four outs above average (OAA) in 2024 which placed him in the 85th percentile in baseball. While he’s not elite in right field like he once was, he’s firmly an above-average defensive right fielder.

He’s not a flashy player and hasn’t played more than 130 games since 2019 (105 in 2024), but he is interesting enough as a rebound candidate.

Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Contract

Kepler is coming off a five-year, $35 million deal he signed with the Minnesota Twins ahead of the 2019 season. He played the 2024 season under a $10-million club option that the Twins picked up.

He didn’t make MLB Trade Rumors or the Athletic’s top MLB free agents list, but did come in at No. 30 on ESPN’s list with a two-year, $28 million contract prediction.

Recommendation 

Kepler could be an under-the-radar option for the Mets. We saw in the first year of president of baseball operations David Stearns tenure the value he puts on defense (Harrison Bader, Taylor) and Kepler would fit that bill. Marte finished with minus-eight OAA in just 94 games last year and while he made up for some of that with his arm, he was still one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball.

If the Mets strike out on Juan Soto and choose to let Jesse Winker (who is also a negative defender) walk, Kepler could be an option.

Signing Kepler would give the Mets a solid defender in right field which would allow them to either push Marte to designated hitter or just give the 36-year-old regular time off. He would also be an additional left-handed bat for a lineup that is currently pretty light on lefties, especially if Soto and/or Winker don’t end up in Queens.

Ultimately, though, he’s a 32-year-old coming off the worst year of his career. ESPN’s contract prediction seems a little aggressive, and the Mets should stay far away if it takes a multi-year deal (unless it’s a second-year team option) to land him. However, if he’s open to a cheaper one-year deal, he should be able to fulfill a left-handed platoon role with strong defense well.