Jed Lowrie
Position: Shortstop
Bats: Both, Throws: Right
Age on Opening Day: 30
2014 Snapshot
In his second season with the Oakland Athletics, Jed Lowrie saw his offensive numbers drop across the board. After posting a .290/.344/.446 line (a great line for a shortstop) with 15 home runs, 45 doubles, and two triples, Lowrie put up a .249/.321/.355 slash with just six home runs in 136 games. His wRC+ dropped 27 points from a 120 in 2013 to a 93 this year. The only real positive from Lowrie’s 2014 season was higher defensive numbers. While his defense still wasn’t great, most metrics had him at ten to 20 runs below average last season and about ten runs better than that this year. If anything positive came out of this year, it’s that Lowrie’s 2013 defense was an anomaly.
Pros
Past Hanley Ramirez, Lowrie has the highest upside among free agent shortstops. When at the top of his game, he is a top three offensive shortstop (he was second in wRC+ in 2013). Very few shortstops are able to put up the kind of numbers that Lowrie can.
At his best, Lowrie can be a solid home run threat for his position. Over his entire career, he has a 162 game average of 15 home runs. Only five shortstops hit 15 or more homers last year and only two did it while posting a wRC+ of 120 or greater.
From the numbers, Lowrie looks like a solid bet to return to old form. His lower-than-usual BABIP points towards a higher batting average in the future and a HR/FB rate of just 3.2 percent, half his career rate, the power could come back as well.
Cons
While Lowrie has shown he can be an elite hitter, the question remains whether he can be consistently elite. This season, he had a 1.9 fWAR and a 0.8 rWAR, not the kind of numbers that warrant a starting spot on an MLB team let alone the multi-year contract Lowrie will likely receive. However, this is the type of player the Mets will be looking at if they decide to solve the shortstop issue through free agency. They don’t have the money to go after Hanley Ramirez, so unless Sandy Alderson decides to make a trade for a shortstop, Lowrie is probably the best option.
Turning to his defense, Lowrie hasn’t bee fantastic with the glove either. Even tossing out his dreadful 2013 defensive numbers, Lowrie is probably only an average defender. While that is probably not going to be a sticking point for a team starving for offense, it is still something to consider.
Projected Contract
It is always difficult to predict what players like Lowrie will get on the free agent market. Had he hit free agency after last season, he may have gotten a four or five year deal in the $60 million range. Even without a qualifying offer, Lowrie won’t get anything close to that this offseason. That being said, with the way free agency has gone the past few years, a two or three-year contract for a player coming off a down year like Lowrie is more than reasonable. I’m predicting a three year, $27 million deal.
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