HYUN-JIN RYU
Position: SP B/T: R/L
Age: 36 (03/25/1987)
2023 Traditional Stats: 11 G, 52 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 3-3, 38 SO, 14 BB
2023 Advanced Stats: 123 ERA+, 17.0% SO%, 6.3% BB%, 3.93 xERA, 4.91 FIP, 4.41 xFIP, 0.4 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR
RUNDOWN
36-year-old South Korean native Hyun-jin Ryu is almost five years removed from a career-best season that saw him leading the league in ERA (2.32), ERA+ (179) and BB/9 (1.2). He finished the 2019 season, his final as a Dodger, second in Cy Young voting, an All-Star and with MVP votes.
He followed up his 2019 season with another superb 2020 season in Toronto, finishing third in Cy Young voting and 13th in MVP voting. However, the injury bug plagued him his final three years in Toronto, culminating in Tommy John surgery during the 2022 season.
Ryu returned to the rotation in August 2023 and showed promise. However, his fastball, offspeed and breaking velocity are all down from previous years. He throws a healthy amount of fastballs, changeups, cutters and curveballs, with the occasional sinker. While his velocity is down, a promising sign is that his hard rate percentage is down from recent years. At 37.1%, it’s the lowest since his 2020 season and ranked in the 65th percentile.
The left-hander projects to be a fourth or fifth-spot option in a rotation. While the velocity and injury track record is something to watch, Ryu returned from Tommy John surgery in just over a year. Recovery time can take up to 18 months to return to full strength, so it’ll be interesting to see what Ryu’s pitches look like come spring. Either way, he is a valuable asset to any rotation, especially if he reinvents himself.
CONTRACT
Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projections have Ryu landing a one-year deal at around $10 million. As mentioned, Ryu will most likely slide into a rotation in a backend spot, either fourth or fifth. To put this number into perspective, here are a few examples of what other pitchers in similar roles signed for this offseason:
- 36-year-old Kenta Maeda: two years, $24 million
- 36-year-old Lance Lynn: one year, $11 million
- 36-year-old Kyle Gibson: one year, $13 million
A one-year deal is all Ryu will receive this offseason from any team. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Ryu has plenty to prove. While he’s nowhere near the ace he once was with the Dodgers, his 3.46 ERA in six 2023 starts proves there’s hope left.
RECOMMENDATION
The starting pitcher market is getting thinner in the final month before spring training. With the Mets not entertaining the idea of Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell, one-year deals are the way to go. The Mets’ starting pitching depth is depleted and would benefit from additional signings.
Ryu isn’t who Mets fans expected to target going into the offseason, but reports indicate that the Mets have interest. With David Peterson out for the foreseeable future, Ryu would fit in as nicely, filling out the fifth spot in the rotation. He also gives the Mets another lefty, Jose Quintana the other.
Queens is a sensible destination for Ryu, who can reestablish himself. Also, if the Mets find themselves out of contention come summer, Ryu can act as a trade piece.
